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Macro
CMT, blackout, jobs, and Japan. No invented FedWatch.
Nasdaq's First Weekly Loss in Five Weeks: QQQ Down 5.5%
QQQ fell 2.5% Friday and 5.5% on the week, the first weekly loss in five weeks. The 2-year yield fell, hike odds stayed low, and tech sold anyway.
Nasdaq Heads for Its First Weekly Loss in Five Weeks
QQQ is down 1.8% and sitting on Thursday's low, the VIX jumped to 18, and the 10-year is 5.13%. Chips, software and cyber lead the selloff on opex Friday.
Import Prices Jump 1.1%, the 2-Year Yield Barely Moves
September import prices rose 1.1% against 0.8% expected, the third hot inflation print this week. The 2-year yield barely moved, and it is opex Friday.
Warsh Didn't Say Hold. The Market Heard It Anyway.
Hot CPI and the hottest PPI since 2022 should have pushed the Fed toward October. Warsh gave no hint, and the market cut October hike odds from 27.5% to 12.5% while December stayed at 78.5%. The 10-year has not bought in.
Producer Prices Jump 1.3%, S&P 500 Closes Green Anyway
September PPI rose 1.3%, the biggest jump since March 2022. The S&P 500 closed green anyway, the 10-year yield fell 12 bps, and Warsh speaks tonight.
EIA Crude Inventories Plunge, Yet Energy Stocks Slip
EIA crude stocks fell 8.557M barrels and $WTI jumped 3% to near $98, yet XLE fell 1.6%. The S&P is flat, health care leads, and Warsh speaks tonight.
September PPI Jumps 1.3%, Yet the 10-Year Yield Falls
September PPI rose 1.3% and core PPI 0.7%, far above forecasts. The 10-year yield fell anyway, chips sold off, and Warsh speaks tonight.
Seoul Hit the Circuit Breaker. The 10-Year Fell Anyway.
Hot core CPI lit a Fed-hike scare. Asia hit a circuit breaker. Overnight the 10-year fell toward 5.09% and October hike odds cooled. The tape is pricing an AI-funding scare, not just a Fed problem.
The Day the Market Believed the Fed Again: Hot Core CPI Sinks Tech, Defensives Bid
Core CPI at 2.6% turned an October Fed hike into a live bet. Nasdaq fell 2%, chips fell 4%, health care and staples rallied, and banks split. Why PPI tomorrow is the next test.
September CPI 2026: Core Runs Hot, Fed October Hike Odds Jump
Core CPI hit 0.3% and 2.6%, above consensus. Polymarket's October Fed hike odds jumped from about 18% to 46.5%. What it means for the 2-year, QQQ and the week ahead.
Banks Beat, Stocks Sold: Why Bank Stocks Fell Despite Q3 2026 Earnings
Goldman, Citi and Wells Fargo beat on Q3 2026 earnings and sold off anyway. Why bank stocks fell despite the beat, what Citi's 5.6% drop says about the market, and the if/then paths into Wednesday's October 2026 CPI.
CPI Tomorrow: Stocks Flat, BofA Fine, Oil Near $95
S&P 500 flat at 7,805 before tomorrow's CPI. What to watch: hot headline vs soft core, BofA's $1.21B AML fine, oil near $95 and J&J's drop.
Seoul's Chips Cracked. The S&P Yawned.
Korea's memory giants fell 7% and 10% and KOSPI broke its 200-day. The S&P barely moved. Why this is a chip problem, not a Korea problem, and where it likely goes after CPI.
The Calm Before CPI Has No Cushion
The S&P hasn't been this calm under the hood in years. Implied correlation sits lower than 99% of days since 2006, and Wednesday's CPI is the first real test of whether that calm holds or snaps.
The Fed Says Credit Is Fine. The Bottom of the Junk Market Disagrees.
The 10-year just posted its highest close since 2002, and the Fed's minutes still call financial conditions supportive. Five signals underneath say the weakest borrowers are already paying for it. Here's the plan we're watching.
The Fed hiked. The odds say October and December aren't done.
Last week's quarter-point move was supposed to clear the air. The rates market is pricing more hikes into year-end while stocks still trade like the Fed is finished.
The Agent Pays Its Own Way: Lightning Comes to x402
Block just plugged Bitcoin's fastest payment network into the open standard for AI agent payments. Here is what that means, in plain words, and why markets should care.
Two clocks, one Friday: triple witching and the S&P rebalance
Friday expires three derivative books, and the S&P 500 roster change is still waiting on Monday’s open — the close still grades the Fed path and the Week 2 lock.
Wash to Repair: Week Recap Fri Sep 5–Fri Sep 11
Week 1 Weekly Lock HIT (SPY below 770.19). Thursday Neg Extension under the 710 put wall. Friday regime flip into Positive Extension — repair attempt, not a blank check. CPI core hot; $WTI faded under $100 after Thursday’s Cos stamp. Next: FOMC Tue–Wed Sep 15–16 SEP*; monthly OPEX Fri Sep 18; Week 2 lock ABOVE 764.29 / tap 770.
The Labor Day Hangover. What Happens When Wall Street Comes Back Tuesday?
Tuesday after Labor Day has leaned red in recent years. 2026 walks in with the S&P already up more than 12% year-to-date — a wrinkle that has historically changed the week.
QQQ Closed 707.64. Nine Handles Under 717 After ISM, JOLTS, and Barr.
Cash close 707.64. Nine handles under 717. GEX snapshot as prices: magnet 700, invalidation 717, box 701.55–713.15. Expired 0DTE is dead. NO TRADE.
Japan 10Y: Tokyo 2.950% vs TV 2.941%. Do Not Blend.
Tokyo 2.950%, highest since Sep 1996. TV 2.941% is a different book. Do not blend. BoJ 91% is a wager. FedWatch was not pulled.
No Warsh Tuesday. Barr, JOLTS, ISM. Then Jobs.
Tue 9:05 ET is Barr, not Warsh. JOLTS + ISM, ADP, Waller, NFP. Blackout Sat Sep 5. FOMC Sep 15–16. FedWatch was not pulled.
The $4.243 Billion Print Was $0. The 10Y Is 4.75 — Tied, Not a New High.
Monday NY Fed printed SRP $0 / $2mm. ON RRP $6.726bn drain. Official 10Y CMT 4.75 — tied Jul 31, not a new high. GEX snapshot 13:01:20 PT paused. Simulated. Not a ticket.