Did the Fed Raise Rates Today? No. Warsh Held, but Two Officials Voted to Hike

As of 12:54 PM PT on Wed Oct 28, 2026. Written after the decision and published after the 1:00 PM PT close. Market levels are TradingView reads at 12:54 PM PT, Polymarket prices are a public API pull at 12:54 PM PT, and options figures are our desk estimate from delayed Cboe data at 12:55 PM PT. Odds are market prices, not forecasts, and they move.

UPDATE, 5:40 PM PT: the close and after-hours earnings are in. Read the market close recap: Why Is Google Stock Down After Hours? Alphabet vs Microsoft

Held, Split 10-2, and Still Pointed at December.

No, the Fed did not raise rates today. The Federal Open Market Committee held the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4% on Wednesday, Oct 28, by a 10-2 vote, and both dissenters, Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, wanted a quarter-point hike right now (Federal Reserve statement, 11:00 AM PT).

The Fed held rates steady, but the vote is the story. In September the committee hiked 12-0. Six weeks later it held, and two officials said that was not enough. CNBC reports it was Cook's first dissent since she joined the Fed in 2022. Markets read the split as a hold that keeps December alive: Polymarket now prices a 25 basis point December hike at 80.5%, up from 76.5% when our Fed decision preview went out this morning.

• Decision: hold at 3.75% to 4% (Federal Reserve). The answer to "did the Fed raise rates today" is no.
• Vote: 10-2. Cook and Hammack dissented in favor of a 25 basis point hike (Federal Reserve).
• December: Polymarket 25 bp hike 80.5%, hold 16.5% (12:54 PM PT). January: hold 66.5%, hike 31.5%.
• Markets: SPY 772.23 (up 0.33% on the day), 10-year 5.045%, 2-year 4.728%, WTI crude front month 102.52 (TradingView, 12:54 PM PT).

Did the Fed raise rates today? What the FOMC statement said

No. The statement says the Committee "decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-3/4 to 4 percent." It keeps the description of inflation unchanged, "Inflation remains elevated," and repeats that "The Committee will deliver price stability." There was no new dot plot or Summary of Economic Projections at this meeting.

The forward-looking line is new: "The accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the Committee's 2 percent goal." That is a wait-and-see sentence. It does not promise a December hike, and it does not rule one out.

Fed statement changes: what changed from the September statement?

• The action: September "decided to raise the target range ... by 1/4 percentage point." October "decided to maintain" it.
• Growth: "expanding at a solid pace" became "expanding at a strong pace." CNBC called it an upgrade.
• Inflation guidance: September's "Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal" was replaced by the "accumulation of more information" sentence.
• The vote: 12-0 in September; 10-2 today, with two dissents for a hike.
• Unchanged: the lines on geopolitical uncertainty, resilient spending, strong productivity, robust capital investment, job gains keeping pace with the workforce, ample reserves, and "Inflation remains elevated."

Who dissented at the Fed meeting, and how did the Polymarket dissent market resolve?

Two officials dissented: Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack, both preferring a 25 basis point hike (Federal Reserve). CNBC notes that Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, who joined Hammack in voting no at the July hold, went with the majority this time.

The favorite bucket did not hit. When our preview published, Polymarket's October dissent market priced no dissents at 35.0%, the favorite, with two dissents at 32.0%, one at 18.0% and three at 17.5% (Polymarket, 6:35 AM PT). After the statement, "two dissents" traded at effectively 100% (midpoint 99.95%) and every other bucket near zero (12:54 PM PT), so the market is settling on two. Our Fed vote count article laid out why a split was live.

What did Warsh say today? Press conference summary

Warsh did not pre-commit to December. He opened by repeating the statement: the economy is expanding at a strong pace, inflation remains elevated, and "The committee will deliver price stability" (Yahoo Finance live blog). Asked where policy goes next, he said the committee's overwhelming judgement is that "monetary medicine is starting to work some," while noting there were no firm conclusions yet on the path ahead (Business Insider, TheFly).

His case for waiting was financial conditions. "We have started to see some changes in financial and credit conditions; they have tightened for some businesses and households, much as we would expect," Warsh said, adding that "market participants are becoming somewhat more discerning in their capital allocations" (CNBC). CNBC reports he stopped short of calling conditions broadly tight.

• Politics: asked about the Nov. 3 midterms, Warsh said: "I just spent two days with my colleagues upstairs. I didn't hear an utterance about politics," and that he does not believe it had any role in the decision (CNBC).
• Growth: "Economic growth has strengthened," Warsh said, noting first-half GDP growth was revised up from 1.8% to 2.4% and that "the third quarter appears to have brought an even more rapid advance" (CNBC). He said tech investment was likely "leading the acceleration" (Business Insider).
• Mandate: Warsh said the committee's discussion "focused mainly on the price stability side of our remit," and called the employment side "quite positive," noting that the four-week average of jobless claims is at "the lowest level in generations" (CNBC).
• Markets: "Financial markets showed bouts of volatility and shifting correlations" (Business Insider).
• Meeting schedule: Warsh said eight meetings a year is still the right number, but "in 2027, one meeting will focus exclusively on broad monetary policy strategy, with neither a vote on the federal funds rate nor a policy statement anticipated." He expects two strategy meetings and six policy meetings in 2028 (CNBC).

Will the Fed raise rates in December? Hike odds after the decision

Markets lean further toward yes than they did this morning. Polymarket prices a 25 basis point December hike at 80.5% and a hold at 16.5%, with a 50 basis point move at 2.4% (12:54 PM PT). Before the statement, CNBC cited CME FedWatch at roughly 85% for a December hike. January, the second-hike gauge, eased: a January hike is 31.5%, against 33.5% this morning.

Read together: December firmer, January softer. The market is pricing one more step in December, not a faster run of hikes.

How did stocks, yields and oil react to the Fed decision?

Calmly, and inside what options priced this morning. SPY was 772.23 at 12:54 PM PT, up 0.12% from 771.33 just before the 11:00 AM PT statement and up 0.33% on the day (Tuesday close 769.66). QQQ was 725.60, up 0.41% since the statement and up 0.60% on the day. SPY's range after the statement ran 769.62 to 773.36. VIX was 16.88. (TradingView.)

For scale, our preview's desk estimate priced the SPY 0DTE straddle at about plus or minus 0.61% for the day (766.7 to 776.1). Near the close, the day's move was inside that band.

Bonds did the moving, and the short end did most of it. The 2-year Treasury yield was 4.728% at 12:54 PM PT, down 4.2 basis points from 4.770% just before the statement, after falling as low as 4.691% during the press conference. The 10-year made a round trip: it jumped to 5.049% in the first minutes after the release, dipped to 4.999% while Warsh spoke, and was back at 5.045% at 12:54 PM PT, up 2.7 basis points since the statement and up 4.6 basis points on the day (TradingView). Mortgage rates after the Fed meeting track the 10-year more than the Fed funds rate, so a 10-year above 5% keeps mortgage costs high.

WTI crude front month was 102.52 at 12:54 PM PT, up 2.62% on the day (TradingView). The Fed did not change the oil math: energy is still the main driver of the inflation the statement calls elevated. Our oil above $100 explainer has the background.

Dealer gamma after the Fed decision: how 0DTE positioning looked

BOOK FACT · NOT A TICKET

The figures below are our desk estimate from delayed Cboe option data pulled at 12:55 PM PT (quotes delayed about 15 minutes), using start-of-day open interest, in dollars per 1% move. Positioning data, not a forecast. When dealers are long gamma, hedging tends to dampen moves.

• SPY 0DTE gamma: about +$1.00B, positive, with the 0DTE gamma flip near 769.1. SPY was 771.02 in that delayed pull.
• SPY 0DTE open interest: the largest call strikes are 772, 780, 792, 793; the largest put strikes are 770, 765, 760, 741.
• QQQ 0DTE gamma: about +$0.68B, flip near 720.7.

How to read it: positive near-dated gamma fits a decision day that stayed inside the straddle, the same setup our preview described. It is a tendency, not a promise. Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close and PCE lands Thursday, Oct 29, and those can move the market without regard to today's gamma.

What happens next? If/then for December

These are scenarios, not predictions.

• If Thursday's PCE runs hot (consensus on TradingView's calendar: 3.6% year over year for September), then watch December hike odds push above 80.5% and January hike odds rebuild from 31.5%. Two hike votes today make a hot print harder to sit through.
• If PCE comes in at or below consensus, then the "more information" line gives the Fed room to wait, and December odds could slip from 80.5%.
• If the 2-year keeps falling from 4.728%, then the bond market is reading Warsh as patient, and the curve steepens with the 10-year near 5%.
• If oil keeps climbing, then the energy inflation problem grows into December regardless of what the Fed said today. The midterms are Tuesday, Nov 3, and OPEC+ meets Sunday, Nov 1 (Reuters).

FAQ

Did the Fed raise rates today?

No. On Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026, the Federal Open Market Committee held the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4% by a 10-2 vote. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented, preferring a 25 basis point hike. The Fed last raised rates in September.

What is the federal funds rate now?

The target range is 3.75% to 4%, unchanged at the October 28, 2026 meeting. It has been at that level since the Fed's quarter-point hike on September 16, 2026, which was approved 12-0. The Associated Press describes the key rate as about 3.9%.

Who dissented at the October Fed meeting?

Per the Fed's statement, two officials dissented: Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack. Both preferred to raise the target range by a quarter percentage point. CNBC reports it was Cook's first dissent since joining the Fed in 2022. The final vote was 10-2.

Will the Fed raise rates in December?

Markets lean yes. Polymarket priced a 25 basis point December hike at 80.5% and a hold at 16.5% as of 12:54 PM PT, up from 76.5% at 6:35 AM PT. Before the statement, CNBC cited CME FedWatch at roughly 85%. These are market prices, not forecasts, and Thursday's PCE report could move them.

What changed in the Fed statement from September?

The Fed said the economy is expanding at a strong pace instead of a solid one, and replaced its line about the September hike with a sentence saying more information will help it decide the appropriate policy stance. The vote went from 12-0 to 10-2. The inflation language did not change.

How did the stock market react to the Fed decision?

Calmly. SPY was 772.23 at 12:54 PM PT, up 0.12% since the 11:00 AM PT statement and up 0.33% on the day, inside the roughly plus or minus 0.61% move options priced this morning by our desk estimate. The 2-year Treasury yield fell to 4.728% after the press conference started.

Will mortgage rates go down after the Fed held rates?

Not necessarily. The Fed does not set mortgage rates directly. They tend to follow the 10-year Treasury yield, which was 5.045% at 12:54 PM PT, close to 5%. With December hike odds near 80.5% on Polymarket, a quick drop in mortgage rates is not what markets are pricing. That is not mortgage advice.

What did Warsh say at the press conference today?

Warsh did not commit to a December hike. He said financial and credit conditions have tightened for some businesses and households, and that growth has strengthened. He added that the committee focused mainly on price stability and did not discuss politics, per CNBC. The Fed's official transcript is not out yet.

Bottom line

The Fed did not raise rates today. It held at 3.75% to 4%, but two officials voted for a hike, the statement swapped September's hike rationale for a wait-for-data line, and Polymarket moved December hike odds to 80.5%. Stocks barely moved, the 2-year yield fell, and the 10-year stayed near 5%. The next test is Thursday's PCE inflation report. For the pre-decision setup, see our Fed decision preview.

Follow @CosAnalyst on X for the PCE report and the December odds as they move, and join our free Telegram channel @CosAnalystSignals for desk updates.

BOOK FACT · NOT A TICKET. This is market reporting and desk research, not a trade recommendation or investment advice.

Sources: Federal Reserve, FOMC statements of Oct 28, 2026 and Sep 16, 2026 (federalreserve.gov); Warsh press conference coverage: CNBC live blog, Business Insider live blog, Yahoo Finance live blog, TheFly (Oct 28, 2026); CNBC (decision coverage, CME FedWatch, Cook's first dissent, July dissents); Associated Press (rate level); Polymarket public API (Fed decision in December and January, October dissent market), pulled at 6:35 AM PT and 12:54 PM PT Oct 28, 2026; TradingView quotes and 1-minute bars at 12:54 PM PT (SPY, QQQ, VIX, US 10-year and 2-year yields, WTI crude front month) and economic calendar (PCE consensus); Reuters (OPEC+); Cboe delayed option chains with the CosAnalyst desk gamma model at 6:35 AM PT and 12:55 PM PT.