BOOK FACT · NOT A TICKET

As of about 5:10 PM PT on Wed Oct 28, 2026. Stock and ETF levels are the 1:00 PM PT regular-session close. Yields are the Treasury-market close read from CNBC at 2:05 PM PT, WTI crude and futures are Yahoo Finance reads at about 5:00 PM PT, and Polymarket prices are a public API pull at 5:10 PM PT. Every after-hours move below is the last extended-hours print as of 4:59 PM PT (CNBC), fetched at 5:10 PM PT, and can change overnight and at Thursday's open. Options figures are our desk estimate from delayed Cboe data at 12:55 PM PT. Odds are market prices, not forecasts, and they move.

The Fed Held, Microsoft Rose, Alphabet Fell, and Memory Chips Kept Running.

Google stock (Alphabet, GOOGL) is down after hours because Alphabet's third quarter burned cash. Free cash flow was negative $9.07 billion, against an analyst estimate of a cash burn of only $36 million (Reuters, LSEG), and the shares were down about 10% after hours, at 292.50 against the 324.89 close (CNBC, 4:59 PM PT). Revenue of $127.58 billion was a touch under the $128.22 billion LSEG estimate, and earnings per share of $2.12 came in below the $3.02 estimate, though CNBC notes it is not clear the two are comparable. Google Cloud was the bright spot: revenue more than doubled to $30.71 billion, above estimates.

Microsoft went the other way. It beat on revenue and Azure, kept free cash flow positive, and traded up about 2.9% after hours (CNBC, 4:59 PM PT). Both reports landed right after the 1:00 PM PT close, about two hours after the Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4% on a 10-2 vote (see our Fed decision recap). During the regular session, stocks exhaled: SPY closed at 772.31, VIX fell to 16.91, and Polymarket has a December hike at 79.5%.

  • After hours (not the close), as of 4:59 PM PT: Microsoft up about 2.9% on an Azure beat, at 546.30; Alphabet (GOOGL) down about 10%, at 292.50 (CNBC).
  • The close: SPY 772.31 (up 0.34%), QQQ 725.61 (up 0.60%), IWM 281.29 (up 0.40%), VIX 16.91 (down 3.48%). Equal-weight RSP slipped 0.04%, so it was a narrow, cap-weighted gain.
  • Rates and oil: at the 2:05 PM PT Treasury close the 2-year yield was 4.685% and the 10-year 5.003%; WTI crude was 101.85 at about 5:00 PM PT.
  • Fed odds (5:10 PM PT): Polymarket December 25 basis point hike 79.5%, hold 17.5%. Memory chips led the session: SK hynix ADR up 13.3%, Micron up 5.86%.

Why is Google stock down after hours? Alphabet earnings in five numbers

The market did not punish Alphabet for growth. Revenue rose 25% from a year earlier, the fastest pace for any period since 2021 (CNBC). It punished the cash. Here is what moved the shares:

  • Free cash flow: negative $9.07 billion. Capital spending of $51.36 billion (up about 114% from a year earlier) outran operating cash flow of $42.3 billion (Yahoo Finance). The LSEG estimate was a cash burn of only $36 million (Reuters).
  • Search: $63.35 billion, up 12% but under the $64.96 billion estimate (CNBC). Total advertising was $82.01 billion against $83.5 billion expected (Yahoo Finance).
  • Earnings per share: $2.12 against $3.02 (LSEG). Alphabet booked an $8.66 billion loss on its equity holdings (CNBC), a $0.55 per share hit after tax (Investing.com), so the headline miss is partly non-operating. Operating income of $40.58 billion also missed a $43.19 billion FactSet forecast (CNBC).
  • Capex: $51.36 billion, below the $55.09 billion analysts expected (CNBC). Alphabet's full-year capex guide is $195 billion to $205 billion, and CNBC says it is expected to exceed $300 billion in 2027, which is the bill the market is reading.
  • Google Cloud: $30.71 billion, up 103%, ahead of the $28.7 billion CNBC cites and the $29.57 billion Reuters cites (LSEG). Cloud operating income was $11.1 billion, up from $3.6 billion a year earlier (Investing.com).

The Gemini app also reached 1 billion users, which CNBC called the fastest-growing product in the company's history. So the read is not that demand is weak. It is that Alphabet is spending more than it earns in cash to meet it, and Alphabet (GOOGL) was down about 10% in extended trading, at 292.50 against the 324.89 regular-session close (CNBC, 4:59 PM PT). Other outlets show slightly different percentages depending on the share class and the minute, and the move has swung through the evening, so treat the exact figure as approximate.

Why is Microsoft stock up after hours? The Azure beat

Microsoft's fiscal first quarter, which ended Sept. 30, beat on the lines investors watch. Revenue was $92.28 billion against $90.69 billion expected, and adjusted earnings per share were $4.89 against $4.73 (CNBC, LSEG). Azure grew 48% to $33.17 billion, the first time Microsoft has disclosed Azure revenue in dollars, against $32.32 billion expected by StreetAccount (CNBC) and $32.84 billion by Visible Alpha (Reuters).

The cash side is why the two reports read so differently. Microsoft spent $45.2 billion on capital expenditures and finance leases, against the $50.67 billion StreetAccount expected, and free cash flow was still positive at $18.63 billion, down 27% from a year earlier (CNBC). CNBC noted Microsoft is keeping positive free cash flow unlike its fellow hyperscalers.

Microsoft shares traded at 546.30 as of 4:59 PM PT, up about 2.9% from the 531.01 close (CNBC). Earlier reports put the gain at about 4% (CNBC) to about 6% (Reuters) when the numbers first hit, so the move has faded since. A price above 543.45 is above Microsoft's record close from Oct. 13 (GeekWire), but extended-hours trading does not set a record close. The regular-session close was down 0.06%.

ReportMicrosoft (fiscal Q1)Alphabet (Q3)
Revenue vs. estimate$92.28B vs. $90.69B$127.58B vs. $128.22B
Earnings per share vs. estimate$4.89 adjusted vs. $4.73$2.12 vs. $3.02 (comparability unclear, per CNBC)
Cloud revenueAzure $33.17B, up 48%Google Cloud $30.71B, up 103%
Capital spending vs. estimate$45.2B vs. $50.67B$51.36B vs. $55.09B
Free cash flow+$18.63B, down 27%-$9.07B
After-hours move (last prints)Up about 2.9%Down about 10%

Sources: CNBC, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, Investing.com. Estimates are LSEG unless noted. After-hours moves are the last extended-hours prints as of 4:59 PM PT and can change.

Our read: it is the same AI spending story with two different cash outcomes. Both companies are growing their clouds fast. The market is paying for the one that is still funding the build from its own cash flow. That is a description of Wednesday's reaction, not a forecast for Thursday's open.

How did stocks close after the Fed decision?

Calmly, with tech in front. SPY closed at 772.31, up 0.34% (range 769.24 to 773.36). QQQ closed at 725.61, up 0.60%, and IWM at 281.29, up 0.40%. The S&P 500 index closed at 7,743.98, up 0.28%. VIX fell 3.48% to 16.91 (range 16.21 to 17.77), so the volatility premium that built into the Fed decision came out. (Yahoo Finance for SPY, QQQ, IWM and VIX; TradingView for the other funds and the S&P 500 index.)

Breadth was narrow. The equal-weight RSP was down 0.04% while SPY rose 0.34%, and the semiconductor fund SMH rose 1.74%. Among the sector funds, technology (XLK) led at up 0.80%, financials (XLF) rose 0.45% and energy (XLE) 0.35%. Utilities (XLU, down 0.84%), real estate (XLRE, down 0.73%), communication services (XLC, down 0.42%) and staples (XLP, down 0.36%) lagged, with the 10-year Treasury yield holding about 5%.

In the evening, S&P 500 futures were little changed at 7,752.75 (down 0.07%) and Nasdaq 100 futures were down 0.46% at 29,675.00 as of about 5:00 PM PT (Yahoo Finance), against the prior settlement. The Nasdaq 100 read looks like Alphabet's drop and Microsoft's gain pulling in opposite directions. That is our interpretation, not a quote from a source, and futures can swing overnight.

Memory chips led: SK hynix, Micron and Seagate

The memory and storage trade extended into the close. SK hynix's U.S.-listed ADR (SKHY) rose 13.3% to 164.70, after the Korean chipmaker reported record third-quarter results, with revenue of 104.6 trillion won and operating profit of 83.3 trillion won, and a quarterly dividend that includes a special payout funded by gains on its Kioxia stake. It also said memory shortages should persist through 2030 (SK hynix, CNBC).

  • Micron (MU): up 5.86% to 983.23, with a high of 990.
  • Seagate (STX): up 4.51% to 697.97. It dipped as low as 621.50 before reversing. Seagate reported Tuesday after the close.
  • Western Digital (WDC): up 4.08% to 396.42.
  • Nvidia (NVDA) fell 1.17% to 215.38 and Meta (META) fell 1.24% to 612.49, so the AI trade did not rise evenly.

One other big mover: Enphase (ENPH) fell 16.0% to 24.99 after guiding fourth-quarter revenue to $225 million to $255 million, well under the roughly $300 million analysts expected, and pointing to higher interest rates and the expired residential solar tax credit (Investing.com, Yahoo Finance). Amazon rose 0.59% to 254.60 ahead of its report on Thursday after the close.

Treasury yields, oil and December hike odds after the Fed hold

No, the Fed did not raise rates (did the Fed raise rates today? see our Fed decision recap).

The bond market took the hold well at the front end. The 2-year Treasury yield was 4.685% at the 2:05 PM PT Treasury close, down 5.2 basis points on the day (CNBC). The 10-year was 5.003%, up 1.0 basis points, so the gap between them (2s10s) steepened to about 32 basis points. The dollar index was 102.12, down 0.24%.

WTI crude front month was 101.85 at about 5:00 PM PT, after trading as high as 103.55 during the day (Yahoo Finance). Our oil above $100 explainer has the background. With oil above 100 and the 10-year at 5%, the Fed's inflation problem is still on the screen even as stocks rallied.

Markets still lean toward a December hike. Polymarket prices a 25 basis point December hike at 79.5% (bid and ask 79 and 80 cents) and a hold at 17.5% (5:10 PM PT), up from 76.5% when our preview went out at 6:35 AM PT. Before the statement, CNBC cited CME FedWatch at roughly 85%. January looks different: hold 65.5%, hike 31.5%. The market is pricing one more step, not a faster run. These are market prices, not forecasts.

Dealer gamma going into the close: how 0DTE positioning looked

BOOK FACT · NOT A TICKET

The figures below are our desk estimate from delayed Cboe option data pulled at 12:55 PM PT (quotes delayed about 15 minutes), using start-of-day open interest, in dollars per 1% move. Positioning data, not a forecast. When dealers are long gamma, hedging tends to dampen moves; when they are short, it tends to amplify them.

  • SPY: 0DTE net gamma about +$1.0B (flip near 769.1), through Friday +$0.7B (flip 770.6), and all expiries about minus $1.22B with the gamma flip near 772.9. SPY closed at 772.31, right at that all-expiry flip.
  • QQQ: 0DTE net gamma about +$0.68B (flip 720.7), but about minus $1.96B across all expiries (flip 728). QQQ closed at 725.61, so the full book was still short gamma going into the Microsoft and Alphabet reports.
  • Put/call open interest, 0DTE: SPY 1.35, QQQ 1.92.
  • Friday straddles (12:55 PM PT): SPY about plus or minus 0.93% (763.8 to 778.2), QQQ about plus or minus 1.56% (712 to 734.5).

How to read it: the SPY book closed at its flip with a calm tape, and the QQQ book was short gamma into earnings that are splitting two of its largest holdings. It is a tendency, not a promise. Thursday's GDP and PCE data can move the market without regard to Wednesday's gamma.

What happens next? Thursday's data and Amazon

These are scenarios, not predictions. Times are Pacific.

  • Thursday, Oct. 29, 5:30 AM: third-quarter GDP advance (forecast 3.2%, Atlanta Fed GDPNow 3.3%), September PCE (forecast up 0.5% m/m and 3.6% y/y), core PCE (forecast up 0.3%), jobless claims (forecast 199,000). The European Central Bank decides at 6:15 AM (deposit rate forecast: hold at 2.50%).
  • Thursday after the close: Amazon, Intel and MicroStrategy report. Amazon holds its earnings call at 2:00 PM (5:00 PM Eastern), per Amazon's investor relations site, and is the next test of the cloud and AI spending story after Microsoft and Alphabet.
  • Friday, Oct. 30: third-quarter employment cost index at 5:30 AM (forecast 0.8%), Chicago PMI at 6:45 AM, and Fed speaker Musalem, the first one after the meeting, at 9:30 AM.
  • Next week: OPEC+ meets Sunday, Nov. 1, Apple reports Monday, Nov. 2, and the midterms are Tuesday, Nov. 3 (Reuters, TradingView calendar).
  • If PCE runs hot, then December hike odds, now at 79.5%, could push higher and the 2-year yield could reverse its drop. If it comes in at or below forecast, then the Fed's wait-and-see line gives it room, and odds could slip.

FAQ

Why is Google stock down after hours?

Alphabet's third quarter showed negative free cash flow of $9.07 billion, against an expected burn of only $36 million, per Reuters and LSEG. Revenue of $127.58 billion was just under the $128.22 billion estimate, and earnings per share of $2.12 were hit by an $8.66 billion equity-holdings loss. Google Cloud revenue rose 103% to $30.71 billion.

Why is Microsoft stock up after hours?

Microsoft beat on revenue ($92.28 billion vs. $90.69 billion) and adjusted earnings ($4.89 vs. $4.73), and Azure grew 48% to $33.17 billion, per CNBC and LSEG. Capital spending came in below estimates and free cash flow stayed positive. Shares were up about 2.9% after hours as of 4:59 PM PT (CNBC).

Did Google Cloud beat estimates?

Yes. Google Cloud revenue was $30.71 billion, up 103%. CNBC cites an analyst estimate of $28.7 billion, Reuters cites $29.57 billion from LSEG, and Yahoo Finance cites $29.1 billion. Cloud operating income was $11.1 billion, per Investing.com. The stock fell because of cash flow and the earnings miss, not cloud.

How did the stock market close on Oct. 28, 2026?

SPY closed at 772.31, up 0.34%, QQQ at 725.61, up 0.60%, and IWM at 281.29, up 0.40%. VIX fell 3.48% to 16.91. Semiconductors led, with the SMH fund up 1.74%, and utilities and real estate lagged. Equal-weight RSP was down 0.04%, a narrow gain. Prices are from TradingView.

How much is Alphabet stock down after hours?

Alphabet (GOOGL) was down about 10% after hours as of 4:59 PM PT, trading at 292.50 against a regular-session close of 324.89 (CNBC). The drop followed negative free cash flow of $9.07 billion. After-hours moves can change overnight and at Thursday's open.

Is Alphabet's free cash flow negative?

Yes, for the third quarter. Alphabet reported free cash flow of negative $9.07 billion, against an analyst estimate of a $36 million burn, per Reuters and LSEG. Capital spending of $51.36 billion outran operating cash flow of $42.3 billion. Google Cloud revenue rose 103% to $30.71 billion.

Why is SK hynix stock up?

SK hynix reported record third-quarter results, with revenue of 104.6 trillion won and operating profit of 83.3 trillion won, plus a dividend with a special payout from gains on its Kioxia stake, per SK hynix and CNBC. It said memory shortages could last through 2030. The U.S.-listed ADR (Nasdaq: SKHY) rose 13.3% to 164.70 at the close.

When does Amazon report earnings?

Amazon reports third-quarter results on Thursday, Oct. 29, 2026, after the close, and holds its earnings call at 2:00 PM Pacific (5:00 PM Eastern), per Amazon's investor relations site. Intel and MicroStrategy also report after the close. Amazon closed Wednesday at 254.60, up 0.59%.

Bottom line

The Fed held, and the regular session exhaled: SPY 772.31, VIX 16.91, a 2-year yield down 5 basis points, and tech and memory chips in the lead. After the bell, the AI trade split. As of 4:59 PM PT, Microsoft was up about 2.9% on Azure and a positive cash flow, while Alphabet was down about 10% on negative free cash flow of $9.07 billion, even with Google Cloud up 103%. After-hours moves can change overnight. The next tests are Thursday's PCE and GDP data and Amazon after the close. For the Fed detail, see our Fed decision recap.

Follow @CosAnalyst on X for Thursday's PCE report and the after-hours moves as they develop, and join our free Telegram channel @CosAnalystSignals for desk updates.

BOOK FACT · NOT A TICKET. This is market reporting and desk research, not a trade recommendation or investment advice.

Sources: CNBC (Alphabet Q3 2026, Microsoft fiscal Q1 2027, SK hynix, Oct 28, 2026); Reuters (Alphabet cloud and cash flow, Microsoft Azure, via MarketScreener and Investing.com); Yahoo Finance (Alphabet Q3 and after-hours coverage); Investing.com (Alphabet Q3, Enphase); CNBC (Alphabet and Microsoft last after-hours prints, 4:59 PM PT, fetched 5:10 PM PT); GeekWire (Microsoft record close, Oct 13); SK hynix Newsroom (3Q26 results); Amazon investor relations (earnings call time); Federal Reserve FOMC statement, Oct 28, 2026; Polymarket public API (Fed decision in December and January) pulled at 6:35 AM PT and 5:10 PM PT Oct 28, 2026; Yahoo Finance quotes at the 1:00 PM PT close and about 2:10 PM PT (SPY, QQQ, IWM, VIX, SK hynix, Alphabet and Microsoft regular-session closes) and about 5:00 PM PT (WTI crude, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures); CNBC Treasury yield quotes at the 2:05 PM PT cash close and CNBC extended-hours quotes at 4:59 PM PT; TradingView closes pulled at 1:43 PM PT (sector funds, SMH, RSP, S&P 500 index, other single stocks) and economic and earnings calendar; Cboe delayed option chains with the CosAnalyst desk gamma model at 12:55 PM PT.

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