Fed Decision Today: Will Warsh Hold Rates, and Is a December Hike Coming?

As of 6:35 AM PT on Wed Oct 28, 2026. Written before the decision. Market levels are TradingView reads at 6:35 AM PT, Polymarket prices are a public API pull at 6:35 AM PT, and options figures are our desk estimate from delayed Cboe data at 6:35 AM PT. Odds are market prices, not forecasts, and they move. This page will be updated after the statement.

UPDATE, 1:15 PM PT: the Fed held. Read what happened: Did the Fed raise rates today? Warsh decision and vote

The Hold Is Priced. December Is the Bet.

The Fed decision today is the least suspenseful part of the day. Polymarket prices no change at 94.9% for the October meeting, and interest rate futures put the chance of a hike at only about 9.4%, according to CME FedWatch data cited by Reuters this morning. After September's quarter-point hike, the committee is widely expected to hold the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4% (Reuters).

The real bet is the next meeting. Polymarket has a 25 basis point hike in December at 76.5%, and Reuters reports FedWatch at an 86.2% probability of a move in December. The 10-year Treasury yield spent much of the overnight session above 5%, peaking at 5.032%, before settling near 4.995%, and WTI crude is back above $100 after Yemen's Houthis claimed a strike on a Saudi refinery. So the question for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at 11:30 AM PT is not whether he holds. It is whether he leaves December on the table.

• Decision time: statement at 11:00 AM PT (2:00 PM ET), Warsh press conference at 11:30 AM PT (2:30 PM ET). No new dot plot at this meeting (CNBC).
• October: Polymarket no change 94.9%, 25 bp hike 5.0% (6:35 AM PT).
• December: Polymarket 25 bp hike 76.5%, hold 20.5%. January: hold 63.5%, hike 33.5% (6:35 AM PT).
• Rates and oil: 10-year 4.995%, 2-year 4.751% (TradingView, 6:35 AM PT); WTI crude $101.52, Brent $115.24 (Reuters, 08:58 GMT).
• Options: SPY 0DTE straddle prices about plus or minus 0.61% for today (desk estimate, delayed Cboe data, 6:35 AM PT). Not a forecast.

What time is the Fed decision today?

The FOMC statement is due at 11:00 AM PT (2:00 PM ET) on Wednesday, Oct 28, and Warsh's press conference follows at 11:30 AM PT (2:30 PM ET). There is no updated dot plot or Summary of Economic Projections at this meeting, so the statement wording, the vote and the press conference carry all the information (CNBC).

Will the Fed raise rates today? Fed decision expectations

Markets expect a hold, not a hike. Polymarket prices no change at 94.9% and a 25 basis point hike at 5.0% as of 6:35 AM PT. CME FedWatch put the chance of an October hike at about 9.4% this morning (Reuters), and in CNBC's latest Fed Survey, 93% of respondents expected a pause this week. A hold would leave the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4% (Reuters).

One place the market is less settled is the vote. Polymarket's dissent market has no dissents at 35.0% (up 16.5 points) and two dissents at 32.0% (down 1.0 points), a thin and fast-moving market. Our Fed vote count article has the full breakdown. A hold with dissents in favor of a hike would read very differently from a unanimous hold.

Will the Fed raise rates in December? Fed hike odds now

Markets think so. Polymarket prices a 25 basis point December hike at 76.5% (up 2.0 points over 24 hours) and a hold at 20.5%, with a 50 basis point move at 2.3%. Reuters reports CME FedWatch at an 86.2% probability of a move in December. In the CNBC survey, 76% of respondents expected a December hike. Major brokerages listed by Reuters mostly forecast one quarter-point hike in December, with BofA Global Research an outlier.

January is the hawkish-tail gauge. A second hike by January is priced at 33.5% on Polymarket. If Warsh's tone pushes that number up after the press conference, the market is pricing a faster path, not just one more step. Our October and December hike odds explainer covers how these odds built up; it was written Sep 24, so its prices are older than this page.

Why the 10-year near 5% and oil above $100 matter for the Fed

The bond market is doing some of the Fed's work already. The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.995% at 6:35 AM PT on TradingView, after trading as high as 5.032% in the overnight session. The 2-year was 4.751%. Mortgage rates remain high: the Mortgage Bankers Association's 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.37% in the week ending Oct 23, down from 7.41% the week before (MBA, released this morning).

Oil is the inflation problem the Fed cannot control. Brent crude rose 1.2% to $115.24 a barrel and WTI crude rose 1.6% to $101.52 at 08:58 GMT, after Yemen's Houthis said they hit Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery, a 550,000 barrel per day plant (Reuters). Saudi authorities had not confirmed the strike. On TradingView, front-month WTI crude was 101.90 at 6:35 AM PT. Our oil above $100 explainer has the background.

That feeds straight into Thursday, Oct 29. September PCE inflation is due at 5:30 AM PT, with the consensus on TradingView's calendar at 3.6% year over year, up from 3.4%, and core PCE at 0.3% month over month. Higher energy costs make it harder for Warsh to sound relaxed about December.

Fed decision today and the stock market: SPY implied move and 0DTE gamma

Not much, by options standards. SPY was 771.44 in premarket trading at 6:35 AM PT (TradingView), up 0.23% after a 769.66 close Tuesday. QQQ was 724.13, and VIX was 17.42.

The figures below are our desk estimate from delayed Cboe option data pulled at 6:35 AM PT, using start-of-day open interest, in dollars per 1% move. It is positioning data, not a forecast. Gamma is how much dealer hedging pushes the market or holds it still: when dealers are long gamma, hedging tends to dampen moves.

• Implied move today: the SPY 0DTE at-the-money straddle prices about plus or minus 0.61% (about 766.7 to 776.1). Through Friday it is about plus or minus 1.08%, which also covers Microsoft and Alphabet earnings and Thursday's GDP and PCE.
• SPY 0DTE gamma: about +$0.84B, positive, with the 0DTE gamma flip near 768.7. Spot sits above it.
• SPY 0DTE open interest: the largest call strikes are 772, 780, 792, 793; the largest put strikes are 770, 765, 760, 741.
• QQQ: 0DTE straddle about plus or minus 0.89% today and 1.8% through Friday; 0DTE gamma about +$0.43B with a flip near 720.5.

How to read it: long gamma near the money tends to keep a scheduled event inside the straddle rather than let it overshoot. That is a tendency, not a promise. A real surprise in the statement could push SPY back below the 768.7 flip, where hedging can add to a move instead of absorbing it.

Hawkish hold vs dovish hold: what each would look like

A hold is the base case. The tone is the trade. Here is how we would read it, in if/then form. These are scenarios, not predictions.

• If the hold is hawkish (the statement or Warsh keeps a December hike clearly in play, or there are dissents for a hike now), then watch for December odds to firm from 76.5%, January hike odds to rise from 33.5%, and the 10-year to retest the 5.032% overnight high. Rate-sensitive stocks would likely feel it first.
• If the hold is dovish (Warsh leans on data dependence and says nothing that commits to December), then watch for December odds to slip from 76.5%, the 2-year yield to ease from 4.751%, and SPY to test the upper half of its 766.7 to 776.1 implied range.
• If it is a non-event, then the volatility is handed to Microsoft and Alphabet after the close, and to GDP and PCE at 5:30 AM PT on Thursday, Oct 29.
• If they hike today (Polymarket 5.0%), every number on this page resets. That is the tail, not the base case.

Warsh Fed chair: what to watch in the statement and press conference

• The statement's inflation language. Any reference to energy prices or a further increase being appropriate would be the clearest December signal.
• The vote. No dissents is 35.0% and two dissents is 32.0% on Polymarket. Dissents in favor of a hike today would lean hawkish.
• Forward guidance, or the lack of it. Warsh has preferred to let markets take their signals from the data rather than pre-commit (CNBC). Watch whether he names December as a live meeting.
• Oil and the midterms. The decision lands six days before the Nov. 3 midterm elections, with WTI crude above $100.

Calendar: EIA, Microsoft and Alphabet, GDP and PCE

• Today, 7:30 AM PT: EIA weekly crude inventories.
• Today, 11:00 AM PT: FOMC statement. 11:30 AM PT: Warsh press conference.
• Today, after the close: Microsoft and Alphabet report.
• Thursday, Oct 29, 5:30 AM PT: Q3 GDP (advance; consensus 3.2% on TradingView's calendar), September PCE inflation and jobless claims.
• Sunday, Nov 1: OPEC+ meets; Reuters sources expect December output targets to stay steady.
• Tuesday, Nov 3: US midterm elections.

FAQ

What time is the Fed decision today?

The FOMC statement is due Wednesday, Oct 28 at 11:00 AM PT (2:00 PM ET). Fed Chair Kevin Warsh holds his press conference at 11:30 AM PT (2:30 PM ET). There is no new dot plot or economic projections at this meeting, so the statement and the press conference carry the news.

Will the Fed raise rates today?

Markets expect a hold, not a hike. Polymarket prices no change at 94.9% and a 25 basis point hike at 5.0% as of 6:35 AM PT, and CME FedWatch put an October hike near 9.4% this morning, per Reuters. A hold would keep the target range at 3.75% to 4%. These are market prices, not forecasts.

Will the Fed raise rates in December?

Markets lean yes. Polymarket prices a 25 basis point December hike at 76.5% and a hold at 20.5% as of 6:35 AM PT. Reuters cites CME FedWatch at an 86.2% probability of a move in December. Most major brokerages forecast one December hike. Warsh's press conference today could shift those odds.

What are the Fed hike odds for January?

Polymarket prices a 25 basis point hike in January 2027 at 33.5% and no change at 63.5% as of 6:35 AM PT. That second-hike price is the gauge to watch after today's press conference. If it rises, the market is pricing a faster path of hikes, not just one more step in December.

Why do the 10-year yield and oil matter for the Fed decision?

Both feed the inflation outlook. The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.995% at 6:35 AM PT after touching 5.032% overnight. Brent was $115.24 and WTI crude $101.52 per Reuters after the Houthis claimed a strike on Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery, which Saudi authorities had not confirmed.

How much could stocks move on the Fed decision?

By our desk estimate from delayed Cboe data at 6:35 AM PT, the SPY 0DTE straddle prices a move of about plus or minus 0.61% today and 1.08% through Friday, which includes Microsoft and Alphabet earnings plus GDP and PCE. Implied moves are what options cost, not a forecast of what will happen.

What is a hawkish hold, and what would it mean today?

A hawkish hold keeps rates unchanged but signals more hikes, for example by keeping December clearly in play or drawing dissents for a hike now. We would expect December and January hike odds to firm and the 10-year to retest 5.032%. That is a scenario, not a prediction or investment advice.

Will mortgage rates go up or down after the Fed decision?

The Fed does not set mortgage rates directly. They tend to track the 10-year Treasury yield, which was 4.995% at 6:35 AM PT. The MBA 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.37% in the week ending Oct 23. A hawkish hold that lifts yields could keep mortgage rates elevated. That is a scenario, not a prediction or mortgage advice.

Bottom line

The Fed decision today should be a hold: Polymarket has it at 94.9%. The real question is December, priced at 76.5% on Polymarket, and whether Warsh's statement and press conference keep it there with the 10-year near 5% and WTI crude above $100. Options price a modest move of about plus or minus 0.61% for SPY today, and near-dated dealer gamma is positive by our estimate, which tends to keep a scheduled event contained. That is a snapshot of positioning, not a forecast. We will update this page after the 11:00 AM PT statement.

Follow @CosAnalyst on X for the decision and the Warsh press conference as they happen, and join our free Telegram channel @CosAnalystSignals for desk updates.

BOOK FACT · NOT A TICKET. This is market reporting and desk research, not a trade recommendation or investment advice.

Sources: Polymarket public API (Fed decision in October, December and January markets; October dissent market), pulled at 6:35 AM PT Oct 28, 2026; TradingView quotes and economic calendar at 6:35 AM PT (SPY, QQQ, VIX, US 10-year and 2-year yields, WTI crude front month, MBA mortgage rate, GDP and PCE consensus); Reuters (oil prices at 08:58 GMT, Ras Tanura claim, brokerage factbox with CME FedWatch data, OPEC+); CNBC (Fed Survey, meeting preview); Cboe delayed option chains with the CosAnalyst desk gamma model at 6:35 AM PT.