Fed Vote Count for the Oct 28 FOMC: The Hold Is Priced, the Split Is the Risk

Polymarket prices as of 10:31 AM PT on Tue Oct 27, 2026. Market, options and volatility data are from the Trading Chief of Staff midday desk report, about 9:45 AM PT the same morning. Everything quoted as odds is a market price, not a forecast, and it moves. Where a figure comes from the desk's 5:24 AM PT read instead, it says so.

The Fed Will Hold. The Vote Count Is the Trade.

Wall Street has already made up its mind about the Fed's decision. Polymarket puts no change at the Wednesday, Oct 28 FOMC meeting at 93.0%. What the market has not settled is how many people on the committee will sign their names to it. Traders are pricing a split: two dissents is the single most likely outcome at 34.5%, and four or more is 6.2%, up 2.4 points on the day. The data we use does not say who would dissent or in which direction, and we are not going to guess.

That is the setup for Wednesday. A hold that is almost fully priced leaves little to learn from the decision itself, so the vote count is where new information can land. Below: what the prices say, what time the statement and the Warsh press conference arrive, where December stands, and how options positioning has shifted into the meeting.

• October decision: no change 93.0%, 25 bp hike 6.5% (Polymarket, 10:31 AM PT).
• October dissents: exactly two is the most likely outcome at 34.5%. Zero is 20.0% (Polymarket, 10:31 AM PT).
• Timing: statement Wednesday at 11:00 AM PT, Warsh press conference at 11:30 AM PT.
• December: a 25 bp hike is priced at 75.5% (Polymarket, 10:31 AM PT).

Will the Fed raise rates at the October 28 FOMC meeting?

Almost certainly not, according to the market. Polymarket prices no change at 93.0% and a 25 basis point hike at 6.5% for October, as of 10:31 AM PT. Every other bracket is under 1%. At 5:24 AM PT the desk had no change at 93.3% and the hike at 6.5%, so the decision odds have barely moved since.

Those are prices, not predictions. The FOMC statement is due Wednesday at 11:00 AM PT, and a hold is the heavy favorite. That is why the open question is the vote, not the decision.

FOMC vote count: what Polymarket prices for dissents

A dissent is a committee member voting against the decision in the statement. Polymarket runs a market on how many there will be at the October meeting, and it is the best live read we have. We have no verified sell-side forecast of the dissent count, so we are not citing one.

• Two dissents is the favorite at 34.5%, up 5.0 points on the day. Zero dissents is 20.0% (down 3.0 points), and four or more is 6.2% (up 2.4 points).
• It moves fast. At 5:24 AM PT the desk had two dissents at 40.0%, zero at 13.5% and four or more at 12.6%. By 10:31 AM PT two was 34.5%, zero 20.0% and four or more 6.2%.
• It is thin. All five dissent contracts together have traded about $44,000, against roughly $26 million on the October no-change contract alone (Polymarket lifetime volume). The two-dissent contract was quoted 33 to 36 cents bid to ask, and four or more 3.7 to 8.6 cents. Polymarket's displayed price here is the midpoint of that spread.
• The data does not say which way. Polymarket counts dissents. It does not say who would dissent or whether they would want a different rate. We are not going to fill that gap.

Why does the count matter if a hold is already priced? Because a hold leaves little room for a surprise in the decision, and the split in the vote is where new information can land. That is our read of the setup, not a prediction of who would dissent or which way.

What time is the FOMC statement and the Warsh press conference?

• Statement: Wednesday, Oct 28 at 11:00 AM PT (2:00 PM ET).
• Press conference: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at 11:30 AM PT (2:30 PM ET).
• Today, Tue Oct 27, is day one of the meeting.

The ET times are straight conversions: daylight time applies on Oct 28, so ET is PT plus three hours.

Will the Fed raise rates in December?

Polymarket prices a 25 basis point hike in December at 75.5% and a hold at 21.5%, as of 10:31 AM PT. January is priced at a hold at 64.5%, with a 25 bp hike at 32.5%. These are market prices, not Fed guidance. At 5:24 AM PT the desk had December at 75.5% for the hike and 21% for a hold, and January at 68% for a hold.

That is the other half of this week's story: the market does not just expect a hold on Wednesday, it expects the next move to be up. Our companion article on October and December hike odds has the longer history of how those odds got here. It was written on Sep 24, so its prices are older than the ones on this page.

Why the market looks calm: VIX, VVIX and SPY implied moves

The calm is visible in the volatility numbers. SPY was about 769.35 at 9:46 AM PT, up 0.52% on the day, after a Monday close of 765.37, and it printed a high of 771.07.

• VIX 17.55 on Cboe at 9:44 AM PT, down from 18.39 on Monday. VIX9D was 16.68, below the 30-day VIX, so short-dated protection is not in demand into the Fed.
• SPY options imply a move of plus or minus 0.20% for the rest of today (768.7 to 771.7) and 0.73% through Wednesday's close, which covers the statement. SPY 30-day implied volatility is 13.5, down from 14.1 on Monday.
• Breadth, one line: equal-weight RSP was down 0.14% at midday while SPY was up 0.52%, a narrow, tech-led rally.

Calm is not the same as safe. Implied moves are what options sellers charge, not what the market has to do. Vol is quiet while a hold is priced. A dissent count the market did not expect could test it.

Are dealers short gamma going into the Fed?

Not in this week's SPY options, by our midday estimate, though the full book still is. Gamma is how much dealer hedging pushes the market or holds it still. When dealers are long gamma, hedging tends to dampen moves. When they are short, it can amplify them. This is the desk's own calculation from delayed Cboe option data pulled at 9:44 AM PT, using start-of-day open interest, in dollars per 1% move in the underlying. It is positioning data, not a forecast.

• SPY 0DTE gamma: +$2.29B, up from -$0.47B at the desk's pre-market read. Through Oct 30 it is +$1.19B (it was -$3.30B before the open). Across all expirations it is still -$1.11B.
• SPY flips: the 0DTE flip is about 768.6 and the all-expiration flip is 771.7. Spot, about 770, sits between them. By our estimate, a sustained close above about 772 would put the whole book long gamma; below it, moves can travel further.
• SPY walls: 0DTE call walls at 777, 775 and 772, and put walls at 767, 762 and 753. Through Oct 30, the biggest put strikes are 745 (114k open interest) and 755 (106k), and the biggest call strikes are 800, 780 and 790. Both put walls expire Friday.
• Put/call open interest: 1.48 for the 0DTE book and 2.23 through Oct 30.
• QQQ: 0DTE gamma is +$1.56B and +$0.98B through Oct 30, but -$1.06B across all expirations, with a flip at 726.5. IWM is +$0.27B for 0DTE and +$0.62B through Oct 30, and -$1.54B across all expirations, with a flip at 289.8.

How to read it: the rally lifted SPY into long-gamma territory for this week's options, which tends to calm the tape near 770, while the full book stays short gamma below the all-expiration flip. The gamma flip is a marker of how jumpy the market is, not a call on direction. The desk's own record on this is 1 for 3 when it treats the flip as a direction call, and three is a very small sample. These figures changed sign in about four hours this morning, so treat them as a snapshot.

A word on receipts, because positioning calls are easy to oversell. Our free-channel scalp tally stands at 13 signals, 2 wins and -6.22R in total (R is the amount risked per trade). We publish our misses.

What to watch Wednesday

• 11:00 AM PT, the statement. The vote count is the thing to read. Polymarket has two dissents as the favorite at 34.5% as of 10:31 AM PT; zero is 20.0%.
• 11:30 AM PT, the Warsh press conference. It follows 30 minutes after the statement.
• December and January pricing. December hike 75.5%, January hold 64.5% as of 10:31 AM PT. The odds can move on the statement and the press conference.
• SPY positioning. Spot about 770 against flips at 768.6 and 771.7, and the options-implied move through Wednesday's close of plus or minus 0.73%.
• After the close Wednesday: Microsoft and Alphabet report (desk calendar). Thursday: GDP and PCE. Friday: the CFTC report, and the SPY 745 and 755 put walls expire.

FAQ

Will the Fed raise rates at the October 28 FOMC meeting?

Polymarket prices no change at 93.0% and a 25 basis point hike at 6.5% for October, as of 10:31 AM PT on Oct 27. Those are market prices, not forecasts. The FOMC statement is due Wednesday at 11:00 AM PT, so a hold is the heavy favorite and the open question is the vote.

What time is the FOMC statement and the Warsh press conference?

The FOMC statement is due Wednesday, Oct 28 at 11:00 AM PT (2:00 PM ET). The Warsh press conference follows at 11:30 AM PT (2:30 PM ET). Today, Oct 27, is day one of the meeting.

How many dissents is Polymarket pricing for the October FOMC vote?

As of 10:31 AM PT on Oct 27, Polymarket prices exactly 2 dissents at 34.5%, up 5.0 points. Zero dissents is 20.0%, down 3.0 points, and 4 or more is 6.2%, up 2.4 points. These are market prices, not forecasts, and we have no verified sell-side dissent forecast.

Why does the dissent count matter if a hold is already priced?

A 93.0% hold price leaves little room for a surprise in the decision itself, so the split in the vote is where new information can land. The 2-dissent price is 34.5% and has moved quickly. That is our read of the setup, not a prediction of who would dissent or which way.

Will the Fed raise rates in December?

Polymarket prices a 25 basis point hike in December at 75.5% and a hold at 21.5%, as of 10:31 AM PT on Oct 27. January is priced at a hold at 64.5%. These are market prices, not Fed guidance. Our companion article on October and December hike odds has the full breakdown.

Are dealers short gamma going into the Fed decision?

Not in this week's SPY options, by our desk estimate from delayed Cboe data at 9:44 AM PT. SPY 0DTE gamma is about +$2.29 billion per 1% move and +$1.19 billion through Oct 30, but all expirations together are still about -$1.11 billion, with that flip near 771.7. This is positioning data, not a forecast.

How big a market move is priced around the FOMC?

As of about 9:45 AM PT on Oct 27, SPY options imply a move of plus or minus 0.73% through Wednesday's close, which covers the statement, and 0.20% for the rest of today. SPY 30-day implied volatility is 13.5, and VIX was 17.55, down from 18.39 Monday. This is information, not investment advice.

Bottom line

The market has priced the Fed's decision: no change at 93.0% for Wednesday. It has not priced the room. Two dissents is the favorite at 34.5%, and the price has swung by several points in a few hours, in a market that has traded only about $44,000 in total. The December hike is priced at 75.5%, so the vote and the press conference may matter as much for what comes next as for Wednesday. Near-dated options positioning turned long gamma by our midday estimate, which tends to calm the tape, but the full SPY book is still short gamma below about 771.7, so a real surprise could still travel. We do not treat that as a forecast. We are not calling the vote, and the data does not say which way any dissent would go. The statement is at 11:00 AM PT.

Follow @CosAnalyst on X for the vote count when it is out, and join our free Telegram channel @CosAnalystSignals for desk updates.

BOOK FACT · NOT A TICKET. This is market reporting and desk research, not a trade recommendation or investment advice.

Sources: Polymarket public API, Fed decision (October, December and January 2026 to 2027) and October dissent markets, pulled at 10:31 AM PT on Oct 27, 2026 and read by the desk at 5:24 AM PT; Trading Chief of Staff desk reports (Oct 27, pre-market about 5:05 to 5:35 AM PT and midday about 9:45 AM PT: TradingView and Cboe quotes, Cboe delayed option chains with desk gamma model); the desk's own graded edge-loop and scalp-lab record.