Markets · weekend research
Wash to Repair: Week Recap Fri Sep 5–Fri Sep 11
Week 1 Weekly Lock HIT (SPY below 770.19). Thursday Neg Extension under the 710 put wall. Friday regime flip into Positive Extension — repair attempt, not a blank check. CPI core hot; $WTI faded under $100 after Thursday’s Cos stamp. Next: FOMC Tue–Wed Sep 15–16 SEP*; monthly OPEX Fri Sep 18; Week 2 lock ABOVE 764.29 / tap 770.
Week 1 Weekly Lock HIT (SPY below 770.19). Thursday Neg Extension under the 710 put wall. Friday regime flip into Positive Extension — repair attempt, not a blank check. CPI core hot; $WTI faded under $100 after Thursday’s Cos stamp. Next: FOMC Tue–Wed Sep 15–16 SEP*; monthly OPEX Fri Sep 18; Week 2 lock ABOVE 764.29 / tap 770.
As-of: Fri Sep 11, 2026, ~6:50 PM ET (fact pack ~3:50 PM PT). After US cash close. Stamp: BOOK FACT · NOT A TICKET. Byline: CosAnalyst.
Week scoreboard
| Fri Sep 4 | Fri Sep 11 | Week | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 770.19 | 764.29 | −5.90 / −0.77% |
| QQQ | 718.96 | 714.88 | −4.08 |
Closes: Fri Sep 4 from Weekly Lock ledger / Week 1 benchmark. Fri Sep 11 from TradingView 1D RTH (Yahoo history agree). Midweek path (Yahoo daily DELAYED/fallback): Mon SPY 765.96 / QQQ 718.36 → Tue 762.40 / 716.31 → Wed–Thu cash used in Cos Fri packs SPY 757.83 · QQQ 708.69.
Weekly Lock scorecard
- Week 1 (ended Fri Sep 11) — HIT · 1–0–0
- Lock (Sun Sep 6): SPY finishes Fri Sep 11 BELOW 770.19
- Tap: 765 (printed midweek; Thu SPY cash 757.83; Fri day low 763.60 per ledger)
- Fri close: SPY 764.29
- Original call: x.com/CosAnalyst/status/2096825271299313809
- HIT scorecard: x.com/CosAnalyst/status/2098509888213438851
- Week 2 (ends Fri Sep 18) — OPEN · already LIVE
- Benchmark: SPY 764.29 / QQQ 714.88
- Lock: SPY ABOVE 764.29 · Tap: 770
- QQQ context (supporting, not scored): ABOVE 714.88 · magnet 720 · fail 711
- LIVE: x.com/CosAnalyst/status/2098515854291771724
BOOK FACT · NOT A TICKET.
The wash — Thu Neg Extension under 710 → Fri repair attempt
Thursday was the unrepaired tape. QQQ cash closed 708.69 — BELOW the put wall 710 (tagged 712.06, failed). Last verified GEX Thursday 11:42 PT: Negative Extension · Net −$244.78M · flip 716 · call wall 722.
That is amplify territory. Spot under the wall, net GEX deep negative, flip still overhead at 716. The wash printed into the Friday open.
Friday tried to repair it. Settled close: SPY 764.29 · QQQ 714.88. Not a full reclaim of the Week 1 benchmark (SPY 770.19). A bounce off the Thursday hole — and a GEX regime flip that matters more than the point count (see Gamma section). Asia soft into the open: Nikkei −1.9% · Kospi −1.8% · HSI −1.9%. ES ~7647 (+0.65%) · NQ ~29358 (+0.77%) on the Cos preopen stamp (Yahoo ~5:48 AM PT — label DELAYED).
Wash Thursday. Repair attempt Friday. The word is attempt.
CPI + oil invoice
August CPI (BLS, Cos morning board):
| Headline | +0.4% MoM / +3.4% YoY (matched) |
| Core | +0.3% MoM (est +0.2%) / +2.4% YoY |
| Gasoline | +3.9% MoM |
Core came in hot versus the +0.2% estimate. Gasoline carried part of the headline. That is the invoice the tape had to clear on Friday.
Oil — Cos desk stamps (prefer for Cos continuity):
Yahoo CL=F daily closes (DELAYED/fallback — futures; alternate feed, not Cos stamp): Sep 8: 93.03 · Sep 9: 96.05 · Sep 10: 102.48 · Sep 11: 99.99. Where Cos and Yahoo disagree on the Thursday print, Cos stamped 103.86 holds for published Cos continuity; Yahoo Sep 10 102.48 is the alternate feed.
Oil carried the week into the CPI session — the Washington chart theme that kept resurfacing beside the print. After the hot core, the contested chamber read was that hike odds jumped into next week’s FOMC.
CONTESTED — hike narrative: Post-print X tape argued a hike was suddenly live for Wed FOMC. That is chamber/prediction color, not a Cos FedWatch print. Cos does not publish FedWatch %. The fact on this page is narrower: core hot (+0.3% MoM vs +0.2% est), gasoline +3.9% MoM, $WTI Cos stamps as above, FOMC calendar Tue–Wed Sep 15–16 SEP*. Whether that authorizes a hike is contested — Warsh/reaction-function frame, not a Cos odds number. Label it CONTESTED. Skip is first-class until the meeting sits.
BOOK FACT · NOT A TICKET.
Gamma flip — Thu amplify → Fri dampen
Exact Cos GEX stamps. Public copy says GEX.
Thu Sep 10 (last verified 11:42 PT):
Fri Sep 11 2PM ET Cos GEX board (primary afternoon stamp):
- As-of: 11:20 PT / 2:20 ET · GEX snapshot QQQ 0DTE SEP 11
- Spot QQQ 716.11 (+1.05%); TV crop ~715.89 @ ~11:21 PT
- Open 715.65 on call wall
- C1 715 · HVL/flip 711 · P1 705
- Net GEX +$348.61M · Profile Positive Extension (above C1)
- EM box (open): 708.39 – 722.91 · Smart range 714.73 – 717.37
- Regime read (Cos, published): dampening / pin around wall — not “must rip to 722”
vs Thu: regime flip amplify → dampen. Thu Net −$245M / flip 716 → Fri Net +$349M / flip 711 / above C1.
Thursday’s negative book amplified the wash under 710. Friday’s positive extension above C1 715 dampened — pin behavior around the wall, not a mandate to chase 722. Mid-Afternoon Map LIVE: x.com/CosAnalyst/status/2098480171057557932
That is the mechanical story of the Friday repair attempt. Vol stayed compressed into the print all week (theme from the recap brief); the bounce after hot CPI read more like regime/vol crush than a cheer for the number. BOOK FACT · NOT A TICKET.
Rates — 10y Yahoo DELAYED
^TNX Yahoo DELAYED stamps (not Cos book settlement):
| Date | 10y |
|---|---|
| Sep 4 | 4.784 |
| Sep 8 | 4.806 |
| Sep 9 | 4.837 |
| Sep 10 | 4.944 |
| Sep 11 | 4.975 |
Path: marched toward 5% as oil elevated midweek. Fri still 4.975 on the DELAYED feed. Yen: UNKNOWN — no Cos book stamp; do not invent USDJPY. BoJ date: UNKNOWN until a verified calendar pull (see next-week board).
Conclusion / next-week board
Week 1 is graded: HIT. SPY finished 764.29, below the 770.19 lock. The wash under QQQ 710 on Thursday was real Negative Extension. Friday’s repair flipped GEX to Positive Extension (+$348.61M, flip 711, above C1 715) — dampen, not a blank check to 722. CPI core hot; $WTI Cos stamps 103.86 Thu → ~99.15 Fri AM. 10y Yahoo DELAYED into 4.975. Hike-into-FOMC is CONTESTED chamber color — no FedWatch % on this page.
Next-week board (hard facts only):
| Event | When | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| FOMC | Tue–Wed Sep 15–16, 2026* | SEP meeting (Summary of Economic Projections). federalreserve.gov. No FedWatch % |
| US equity monthly OPEX | Fri Sep 18, 2026 | Third Friday. Same day Week 2 grades |
| BoJ | mid-Sep window often cited with OPEX week | UNKNOWN — needs verified BoJ calendar pull before print. Do not invent date |
| $WTI / 10y / yen | WATCH into FOMC/OPEX week | $WTI + 10y have stamps above; yen UNKNOWN |
Week 2 lock (LIVE): SPY ABOVE 764.29 · Tap 770
x.com/CosAnalyst/status/2098515854291771724
WRONG IF (Week 2):
- SPY loses ~757–758 and holds under into Fri Sep 18
- QQQ loses ~711 and stays broken into Fri
Watch $WTI and the 10y into the SEP* meeting. Watch monthly OPEX Friday. BoJ and yen stay UNKNOWN until stamped — do not fill the gap with a guess. The contested hike narrative rides next to the calendar; it is not the Cos odds book.
Wash to repair was the week. Grade the next one on Friday.
BOOK FACT · NOT A TICKET.
Sources / as-of
As-of: Fri Sep 11, 2026, ~6:50 PM ET (fact pack ~3:50 PM PT).
- FOMC calendar: federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
- Live Cos: Week 1 call x.com/CosAnalyst/status/2096825271299313809 · HIT x.com/CosAnalyst/status/2098509888213438851 · Week 2 x.com/CosAnalyst/status/2098515854291771724 · Mid-Afternoon Map x.com/CosAnalyst/status/2098480171057557932
- Oil cashtag $WTI. Public GEX only. No FedWatch %. No live tickets. BoJ date UNKNOWN. Yen UNKNOWN.