BOOK FACT · NOT A TICKET
As of 9:49 AM PT on Thu Oct 29, 2026, midday. Stock, ETF, index, VIX and yield levels are Yahoo Finance reads at 9:49 AM PT; changes are against Wednesday's close. Polymarket prices are a public API pull at 9:50 AM PT. Odds are market prices, not forecasts. Intraday moves can change by the 1:00 PM PT close.
Look at the Nasdaq and it feels like a selloff. Look at the average stock and it is a decent day.
Alphabet (GOOGL) was 285.03, down 12.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 1.38% at 9:49 AM PT. But the equal-weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP) was up 0.85% while the cap-weighted SPY was down 0.45%, a 1.3 point gap. Small caps (IWM) were up 0.99%, the Russell 2000 up 1.06%, and VIX fell 3.2% to 16.37. Eight of 11 sector funds were green. This is a selloff in a handful of very large stocks, not in the market.
We covered why Google stock fell in depth this morning: the Alphabet search revenue miss and cash burn. This piece is about everything else.
Why is the stock market mixed today? Index weight
The S&P 500 is weighted by market value, so a 12% drop in one of its biggest companies drags the index even when most members rise. The equal-weight version gives every stock the same vote, and it says the typical stock is up. QQQ was down 1.49% at 714.81, SPY down 0.45% at 768.80, and the Dow down 0.41%.
The losers clustered in AI software and communication services: XLC down 1.55%, XLK down 1.34% and the chip fund SMH down 1.12%. ServiceNow fell about 20% on an earnings miss, Zscaler about 7%, CrowdStrike and Palo Alto 6% or more, and CoreWeave and Nebius 6% or more (Schwab, CNBC). Marvell fell about 12% on a report it is in talks to buy Lumentum. Microsoft (MSFT) gave up a premarket gain and was down 1.4% at 523.71. Nvidia was down 1.0% and Broadcom 2.2%.
Eli Lilly earnings push health care to a record
Health care led every sector, with XLV up 2.05% and the sector at a record (StockTitan). Eli Lilly (LLY) was 1,368.07, up 6.2%, after adjusted EPS of $7.48 vs. $6.26 expected and revenue of $24.4 billion vs. $22.61 billion (LSEG), plus a raised 2026 revenue forecast. Merck (MRK) was 148.37, up 5.3% after it beat and raised guidance (Schwab).
Rate sensitive groups joined in as yields eased: real estate (XLRE) up 1.86%, utilities (XLU) up 1.54% and financials (XLF) up 1.42%.
Deal day: ADT stock, DoorDash and Instacart
- ADT jumped about 34% on a $15.3 billion all cash buyout by Thrive Holdings (CNBC).
- DoorDash agreed to buy Instacart parent Maplebear at $65 per share (CNBC).
- Marvell and Lumentum: the talks report sent Marvell down and Lumentum up (Schwab, CNBC).
Other big movers per CNBC: Glaukos up 32%, Textron about 15%, Boot Barn about 14%, Norwegian Cruise 13% and Chipotle 8% on same store sales, while Sprouts fell 22% on a miss and a cut forecast. Caterpillar stock was 656.90, down 7.9%, but well off its 631.01 low, after beating on EPS and revenue (LSEG) with slightly light construction sales and an unchanged outlook (CNBC, Schwab).
ECB rate decision: a hike was debated, then the ECB held
The European Central Bank held its deposit rate at 2.50% in a unanimous decision, but Christine Lagarde said the council debated a hike (ECB, CNBC). Euro area inflation is 3.8% with energy inflation at 18.9%. Money markets price about a 67% chance of a December ECB hike (LSEG via CNBC). Lagarde steps down Feb. 7, 2027.
Fed odds on Polymarket: traders trim the 2027 hike path
The 10-year Treasury yield slid to about 5.00% from a 5.045% close (intraday low 4.95%) ahead of the 7-year auction at 10:00 AM PT. On Fed Decision in December?, a 25 basis point hike was 76.5% and no change 21.5% at 9:50 AM PT, up 2 points for a hold on the day. CME FedWatch showed about 81.8% for a hike before this morning's data (Investing.com), so Polymarket is about 5 points less hawkish.
Further out, traders are pulling back from hikes into 2027. Fed Decision in January? shows a hold at 67.5% (up 4 points) and a hike at 29.5%. Fed Decision in March? has a hike at 48.5% (down 9 points) and a hold at 43% (up 8). On How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?, two hikes sit at 76% (down 4) and one at 23%. Fed rate cut by...? puts a cut by the July 2027 meeting at 45.5%. These are market prices, not forecasts.
What options positioning says
Our desk estimate from delayed Cboe chains at 9:49 AM PT: SPY sits below its gamma flip (about 772 for same day options, 773.5 across all expiries), with dealers short gamma, which tends to let moves run in either direction. The largest same day call strike is 780 and put strike 758. QQQ is well under its flip near 722.8, with its low of 711.62 just above a cluster of 710 puts. IWM is the only long gamma book, with a flip near 280.9, which tends to dampen moves. That is positioning, not a forecast.
What to watch next
- 10:00 AM PT: 7-year Treasury note auction (prior 5.085%).
- 1:00 PM PT: cash close. Does RSP finish ahead of SPY, and does GOOGL close down more than 10%?
- After the close: Amazon earnings (about 1:01 PM PT), plus Intel and MicroStrategy. AMZN was 246.24, down 3.3%, into the report.
- Friday 5:30 AM PT: Q3 employment cost index, then Chicago PMI at 6:45 AM PT and Fed speaker Musalem.
FAQ
Why is the stock market mixed today, Oct. 29, 2026?
A few very large stocks are falling while most stocks rise. At 9:49 AM PT, the equal-weight S&P 500 ETF was up 0.85% and small caps were up about 1%, while SPY was down 0.45% and QQQ down 1.49% as Alphabet fell 12.3%.
Why is Google stock down today?
Alphabet's search revenue was $63.35 billion vs. $64.96 billion expected and free cash flow was negative $9.07 billion (CNBC). GOOGL was down 12.3% at 285.03 at midday.
Why is Eli Lilly stock up today?
Lilly posted adjusted EPS of $7.48 vs. $6.26 expected and revenue of $24.4 billion vs. $22.61 billion (LSEG) and raised its 2026 revenue forecast. LLY was up 6.2% and health care hit a record.
What did the ECB decide today?
The ECB held its deposit rate at 2.50% unanimously, though Lagarde said a hike was debated. Money markets price about a 67% chance of a December hike (LSEG via CNBC).
Will the Fed raise rates in December?
Markets lean that way. Polymarket priced a 25 basis point December hike at 76.5% as of 9:50 AM PT. Odds are market prices, not forecasts.
Bottom line
Today's damage is concentrated. Alphabet and AI software are sinking, but the equal-weight S&P 500, small caps, health care and most sectors are up, VIX is lower and yields are easing. Amazon after the close is the next test for the megacaps.
Follow @CosAnalyst on X for the close and Amazon earnings, and join our free Telegram channel @CosAnalystSignals for desk updates.
BOOK FACT · NOT A TICKET. This is market reporting and desk research, not a trade recommendation or investment advice.
Sources: Yahoo Finance quotes at 9:49 AM PT; Polymarket public API at 9:50 AM PT; Cboe delayed option chains with the CosAnalyst desk gamma model; ECB press release and CNBC (ECB); CNBC midday movers; Schwab market update; LSEG (earnings estimates); StockTitan (health care record); MarketScreener; Investing.com (CME FedWatch).