macro · desk note
No Warsh Tuesday. Barr, JOLTS, ISM. Then Jobs.
Tuesday 9:05 ET is Gov. Barr at an inclusion venue. It is not Warsh. The week is JOLTS + ISM, ADP, Waller, and Friday’s August jobs print. Blackout starts Sat Sep 5. FOMC Sep 15–16. FedWatch was not pulled. We do not invent it.
The calendar is the card
- Tue Sep 1 · 9:05 ET — Barr (not Warsh)
- Tue Sep 1 · 10:00 ET — JOLTS + ISM manufacturing
- Wed Sep 2 · 8:15 ET — ADP
- Wed Sep 2 · 10:30 ET — EIA ($WTI)
- Wed Sep 2 · 2:00 ET — Beige Book
- Thu Sep 3 · 8:30 ET — Waller + claims
- Thu Sep 3 · 10:00 ET — ISM Services
- Fri Sep 4 · 8:30 ET — August jobs — the print
Warsh at Jackson Hole: “a discipline, not a decision.” Do not wait for Warsh on TV on Tuesday.
Blackout, FOMC, buybacks
Blackout starts Sat Sep 5. FOMC Sep 15–16. Treasury buybacks size-up Wed Sep 9 ($2bn → at least $4bn, 10s–30s, sb0607). Labor Day is next week. PPI/CPI next week, in blackout, still before FOMC.
CME hike odds ~64% at 3:45 p.m. EDT on Aug 31 — a moving number, not a lock. We do not invent FedWatch. If a later note cites a pulled screen, it will say so.
Barr Tuesday. Jobs Friday. Blackout Saturday. Not a Warsh show. Book fact · not a ticket.