Oil won the week. A war premium pushed WTI crude back above $103 and Brent near $117, the Dow lost 653 points, and the S&P 500 closed near its low for a second straight weekly loss. Under the surface, 367 of 503 S&P 500 stocks fell.

Data check: TradingView closing quotes ~1:45 PM PT, Fri Oct 23, 2026 (cash close 1:00 PM PT). Polymarket 1:49 PM PT. CME FedWatch (via Investing.com) 1:25 PM PT. Desk gamma from Cboe delayed chains 1:47 PM PT.

The bounce in our midday oil report did not last. Houthi attacks on Saudi energy sites, an oil spill reported off the UAE, and fears of renewed US strikes on Iran kept a war premium in crude all day (Reuters, CNBC, AP). WTI crude closed at $103.20, up 3.75% on the day and 7.4% on the week (front-month series). Brent settled at $116.72, its highest since late April (Reuters).

Stocks paid for it. The Dow fell 653 points (-1.23%), with American Express a major drag. The S&P 500 slipped 0.52% and closed near its low, and the Nasdaq gave back a morning gain to finish down 0.21%. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq posted a second straight weekly loss (AP, Yahoo Finance).

Stock market today: how the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed

  • S&P 500 7,623.68, -0.52% (-39.75). High 7,660.15, low 7,612.07. Week: -1.57%.
  • Nasdaq Composite 25,955.34, -0.21% (-53.52). Week: -2.62%.
  • Dow 52,215.16, -1.23% (-652.82).
  • SPY 759.97, -0.52%, within 1.3 points of its 758.68 low. Week: -1.72%.
  • QQQ 704.40, -0.01%. It was up as much as 0.68% at the 709.30 high, then gave it all back. Week: -2.91%.
  • IWM 275.75, -0.33%. Week: +0.08%, the only flat-to-green index ETF on the week.
  • DIA 521.37, -1.24%. RSP (equal weight) 216.54, -0.77%.
  • Futures (~1:45 PM PT): ES 7,673.25 (-0.41%), NQ 29,172 (+0.10%), RTY 2,789.5 (-0.24%).

QQQ finished flat (-0.01%), the Nasdaq Composite -0.21%, and Nasdaq 100 futures +0.10% at 1:45 PM PT.

The session shape matters: SPY reclaimed VWAP and QQQ hit +0.7% around midday, then the afternoon faded and the Nasdaq slipped into the red (AP: "after giving up a modest gain").

Oil price today: WTI crude, Brent, yields, gold and bitcoin

  • WTI crude $103.20, +3.75% (range 98.84 to 103.92). Brent $116.72, +3.14% (high 117.45).
  • Airlines took the fuel-cost hit: UAL -3.99%. Yahoo Finance said United, Delta and American all fell more than 4% intraday.
  • 10-year 4.999%, +3.8 bp (high 5.005%). 2-year 4.686%, 30-year 5.324%, each +3.8 bp. 2s10s about +31 bp. Reuters (midday) had the 10Y down about 11 bp on the week, on pace for a third straight weekly decline.
  • VIX 19.45, +2.2%, up 21.4% on the week. It touched 20+ in the morning and never got back there.
  • DXY 101.82, +0.20%.
  • Gold $4,007.30, -1.31%, briefly under $4,000 (low $3,989.10).
  • BTC $81,375, flat. ETH $2,399, +0.5%. COIN -2.7% (-9.2% on the week). HYG 77.05, -0.06%: no credit stress signal.

Why the S&P 500 hid the damage: 367 of 503 stocks fell

135 of 503 S&P 500 stocks rose, 367 fell, 1 was flat (TradingView screener at the close). That is worse than our midday oil report (155/348). AP called it "nearly three out of every four." Equal-weight RSP (-0.77%) lagged SPY (-0.52%) again, so the cap-weighted index hid the damage.

Bar chart of SPDR sector ETF percent changes at the close, Fri Oct 23, 2026. XLE ETF +2.60% leads; XLP -1.92% is worst.
  • Up: XLE ETF +2.60%, XLK +0.49%, XLRE +0.12%. SMH +0.74% (527.20), a partial chip rebound after Thursday's selloff.
  • Down: XLU -0.72%, XLB -0.74%, XLV -1.11%, XLI -1.27%, XLF -1.32%, XLY -1.66%, XLC -1.78%, XLP -1.92% (worst).

Data: hot prices, cool mood

  • S&P Global flash PMIs (Oct): manufacturing 56.0 vs 55.5 forecast; services 57.9 vs 58.0; composite 57.6. Selling prices rose at the fastest rate since August 2022 (S&P Global/Reuters).
  • UMich sentiment, final Oct: 48.0 vs 46.3 expected. Year-ahead inflation expectations 4.7%, 5-year 3.5%, both highest since May. 69% of consumers expect rates to rise in the year ahead, the highest since April 2023.

Fed rate hike odds: hold Oct 28, December hike still the base case

  • October 28: Polymarket (1:49 PM PT) no change 92.5%, +25 bp 7.5%. CME FedWatch (1:25 PM PT) hold 92.0%, +25 bp 8.0%, down from 16.1% a week ago. The two agree almost exactly.
  • December 9: Polymarket +25 bp 72.5%, no change 20.5%, +50 bp or more 3.1%. FedWatch one hike 70.3%, two hikes 6.0%, hold 23.7% (up from 13.6% a week ago). Both put at least one hike by December at roughly 75%.
  • Polymarket "How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?": zero at 96.2%.
  • The Fed blackout runs through Thu 10/29.

Key levels and dealer gamma (desk estimate)

Desk model from Cboe delayed chains (1:47 PM PT), morning open interest, expiries Mon 10/26 to Fri 10/30. Not a vendor number.

  • SPY: net GEX about -$9.9B per 1% move, so dealers are still short gamma into next week and moves can extend. Gamma flip ~774, about 1.8% above the close. Biggest put-gamma strikes 755 (-$2.2B), 750 (-$1.7B), 760 (-$1.3B). SPY closed right on the 760 line traders were watching; 755 and 750 are next.
  • QQQ: net about -$3.3B per 1%, with no gamma flip within ±3% of spot. Put strikes 700, 695, 690.
  • IWM: net about -$0.26B; flip ~277.7, just above the close.
  • Put/call volume: SPY 1.31 (1.21 at midday), QQQ 1.13, IWM 1.92. Put buying picked up into the close.

Biggest stock movers: Crown Castle, Bloom Energy, AT&T, T-Mobile

Up

  • Crown Castle (CCI) +9.06%, the S&P's top gainer; AMT +4.08%, SBAC +3.57%. Bloomberg via Reuters: SpaceX is in talks with cell-infrastructure companies about access to US cell sites. No lease has been confirmed.
  • Cybersecurity: CRWD +8.25%, PANW +7.22%, OKTA +5.82%, DDOG +4.62%, FTNT +4.05%.
  • Energy: SLB +7.08% on a Q3 beat (adj EPS $0.64 vs $0.62, revenue $9.45B vs $9.27B). HAL +5.21%, APA +4.98%, DVN +4.49%, CVX +2.88%, XOM +2.79%.
  • Chips bounced: MU +2.46%, AMD +1.74%, INTC +1.72%.

Down

  • Bloom Energy (BE) -11.24%, the S&P's worst, despite a Q3 beat and raised guidance; negative cash flow on record capex triggered a sell-the-news drop (Reuters, Investing.com).
  • Comfort Systems (FIX) -9.26%: no 2027 guidance and a CFO retirement.
  • Globe Life (GL) -8.09%: adj EPS miss, lower 2026 guidance, Piper Sandler downgrade.
  • Telecoms on the SpaceX report: AT&T -7.96%, T-Mobile -7.71%, Verizon -1.19%.
  • American Express (AXP) -3.68%: EPS beat, but revenue and network volume missed and it announced ~3,500 job cuts. A major Dow drag.
  • Megacaps: MSFT +0.66% was the green one; GOOGL -1.24%, JPM -1.47%, LLY -2.54%.

Free channel receipts: Hawk and Fox, full session

Desk-graded against TradingView 1-minute bars from the public log at t.me/s/CosAnalystSignals, gross of costs unless noted. "Fwd test" means the post was tagged as a forward test. Fox is our 9 EMA/VWAP system; Hawk is our trend-breakout system. Every loss is listed.

Closed: 10 trades, 3 wins, 1 scratch (+0.03R), 6 losses, about +3.8R gross. Excluding forward tests: 6 closed, 3W / 3L, about +5.9R.

  • WIN +4R. Hawk RTY1! 5m premarket SHORT, posted 1:32 AM PT; target hit 3:52 AM PT.
  • WIN +4R. Hawk RTY1! 5m premarket SHORT, posted 5:21 AM PT; target hit 6:33 AM PT.
  • LOSS -1R. Hawk NQ1! 5m RTH SHORT, posted 6:42 AM PT; stopped 6:45 AM PT.
  • LOSS -1R. Hawk QQQ 5m RTH PUT, posted 6:44 AM PT; stopped 6:45 AM PT.
  • LOSS -1R (fwd test). Fox NQ1! 5m LONG, posted 7:10 AM PT; stopped 7:27 AM PT.
  • LOSS -1R (fwd test). Fox ES1! 5m LONG, posted 8:05 AM PT; stopped 10:10 AM PT.
  • SMALL LOSS -0.25R. Hawk ES1! 5m LONG, posted 10:08 AM PT; out at the 12:30 PM PT time exit.
  • SMALL LOSS -0.17R (fwd test). Hawk SPY 15m CALL, posted 10:08 AM PT; out at the 12:30 PM PT time exit.
  • SMALL WIN +0.16R net (+0.22R gross). Fox QQQ 5m PUT, posted 11:45 AM PT; flat at the 12:30 PM PT time exit.
  • SCRATCH, about +0.03R at the 12:30 PM PT flat per our lab (fwd test). Fox QQQ 5m RTH PUT, posted 12:00 PM PT. The relay still shows it open.

Open at writing:

  • Hawk NQ1! 15m LONG, posted 7:27 AM PT, open, marked at +0.97R ~1:51 PM PT, stop at breakeven (fwd test).
  • Hawk QQQ 15m CALL, posted 7:27 AM PT, open, marked at +0.53R at the 1:00 PM PT cash close, stop at breakeven.
  • Fox RTY1! 5m LONG, posted 8:05 AM PT, open, marked at +0.43R ~1:51 PM PT (fwd test).
  • Fox NQ1! 5m SHORT, posted 12:05 PM PT, open, marked at -0.18R ~1:51 PM PT (fwd test).

The day in one line: the premarket Hawk small-cap shorts nailed the risk-off open, the first-bar shorts at the bell got run over by the Nasdaq reversal, and the Fox scalps were mostly scratches and stop-outs.

BOOK FACT · NOT A TICKET. These are public alert outcomes, graded by the desk. They are not advice and not a trade for you to copy.

Scalp lab: our 9 EMA/VWAP scalp isn't an edge yet

Our lab's TradingView-faithful data set now reproduces the live Fox alerts exactly: 13 of 13 fires Oct 20-23 matched on bar and entry, with 0 extras. So the lab measures what the alerts actually fire. The answer on that data: out-of-sample, 29 trades, 41.4% win rate, -0.166R average, profit factor 0.65. Forward since the Oct 13 pre-registration: 24 trades, PF 0.63. Fox live fires Oct 21-23 (lab-graded with costs): 9 trades, -5.07R. Three new pre-registered ideas were tested and rejected. Nothing passes the promotion gate, and we are not changing rules to make it look better. We publish that instead of tuning until it looks good.

A note on our swing research: no swing edge-loop run is on file for Oct 21-23. The latest graded run is from Tue Oct 20, so there is nothing new to report from it today.

What's next (PT)

  • Weekend: oil and Middle East headlines (US-Iran, Houthi/Saudi).
  • Mon 10/26: Chicago Fed activity index 5:30 AM PT; Dallas Fed manufacturing 7:30 AM PT.
  • Tue 10/27: FOMC meeting begins. Durable goods 5:30 AM PT; consumer confidence and new home sales 7:00 AM PT; Visa after the close.
  • Wed 10/28: Fed decision 11:00 AM PT, press conference 11:30 AM PT. EIA crude 7:30 AM PT. Microsoft and Alphabet ~1:00 PM PT, Ford ~1:05 PM PT.
  • Thu 10/29, 5:30 AM PT: Q3 GDP advance (fc 3.0%), September PCE and core PCE (fc +0.3% m/m), jobless claims. Amazon and Starbucks ~1:00 PM PT. ECB and BoE decisions.
  • Fri 10/30: Employment Cost Index 5:30 AM PT; Chicago PMI 6:45 AM PT.
  • US clocks fall back Sun 11/1.

FAQ

Why did oil go up this week?

Houthi attacks on Saudi energy sites, an oil spill reported off the UAE, and fears of renewed US strikes on Iran added a war premium, per Reuters, CNBC and AP. WTI crude closed Friday at $103.20, up 3.75% on the day and 7.4% on the week. Brent settled at $116.72, its highest since late April.

Why was the Dow down today?

The Dow fell 653 points, or 1.23%, to 52,215.16 on Friday, Oct 23, 2026. Rising oil weighed on stocks, and American Express fell 3.68% after revenue and network volume missed and it announced about 3,500 job cuts, making it a major Dow drag. The S&P 500 slipped 0.52%.

Did the S&P 500 fall for a second week?

Yes. The S&P 500 fell 0.52% on Friday to 7,623.68 and lost 1.57% for the week, its second straight weekly loss, per AP and Yahoo Finance. The Nasdaq Composite also fell for a second week, down 2.62%. Breadth was weak: 367 of 503 S&P 500 stocks fell Friday.

Is the 10-year Treasury yield at 5%?

Effectively yes. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.999% on Friday, up 3.8 basis points, after touching a high of 5.005%. The 2-year closed at 4.686% and the 30-year at 5.324%. Reuters said at midday the 10-year was still down about 11 basis points on the week.

Will the Fed hike rates on October 28?

Markets say no. Polymarket shows a 92.5% chance of a hold and CME FedWatch shows 92.0%, with FedWatch hike odds down from 16.1% a week ago. For the December 9 meeting, both put the odds of at least one hike at roughly 75%. The decision is due 11:00 AM PT Wednesday.

Which sectors gained as oil rose?

Energy led. The XLE ETF rose 2.60%, with SLB up 7.08% on a Q3 beat, Halliburton up 5.21%, Chevron up 2.88% and Exxon up 2.79%. Technology (XLK ETF) gained 0.49%. Consumer staples (XLP ETF) was the worst sector at -1.92%, and airlines fell as United dropped 3.99%.

Bottom line

Oil won the week, and the indexes are still hiding how many stocks are falling. Dealers are short gamma into a week with the Fed, megacap earnings and PCE, so moves can extend. Our levels: SPY 755 and 750 below, the ~774 gamma flip above.

Follow [@CosAnalyst on X](https://x.com/CosAnalyst) for next week's Fed coverage, and join our free Telegram channel [@CosAnalystSignals](https://t.me/CosAnalystSignals) to see Hawk and Fox alerts in real time, losses included.

Sources: TradingView; Polymarket; CME FedWatch via Investing.com; Cboe delayed chains (desk model); AP; Reuters via Investing.com; Yahoo Finance; CNBC; Bloomberg via Reuters; University of Michigan; S&P Global; MarketWatch; Forbes; Opening Bell Daily; Seeking Alpha; t.me/s/CosAnalystSignals.

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