macro · desk note
Japan 10Y: Tokyo 2.950% vs TV 2.941%. Do Not Blend.
Tokyo 10Y 2.950%, highest since Sep 1996. TV printed 2.941%. Those are two books. Cos will not blend them into one “Japan 10Y” headline. BoJ 91% is a wager, not a decision.
Two books. Do not blend.
Official CMT close, Aug 31, carries Japan 10Y (Tokyo) 2.950%. That is the Cos Tokyo print. TV 2.941% is a TV print. We will not average them, not round them into 2.95, and not treat a vendor screen as the Tokyo close.
Tokyo 2.950% is real duration. It is the highest since Sep 1996. JGB auction Tuesday is Japan’s test. A 3% handle is a threshold other desks are watching. Cos does not invent the next tick.
BoJ 91% is a wager
A 91% BoJ hike number is a wager. It is not a Cos-verified lock and not a decision. Treat it the same way we treat CME hike odds ~64% at 3:45 p.m. EDT: a moving number, not a vote.
FedWatch was not pulled. We do not invent a FedWatch print for Japan or for the FOMC. If a later note cites a pulled screen, it will say so. This one does not.
Tokyo 2.950% vs TV 2.941%. Do not blend. BoJ 91% is a wager. Book fact · not a ticket.
US official CMT, same close: 2Y 4.34 · 10Y 4.75 (tied Jul 31) · 30Y 5.25. 2s10s 41 bp. Japan is the overseas duration fact on that card. See The print was $0.