Anthropic S-1 Lifts Tech as Brazil Hits Circuit Breaker

As of about 9:50 AM PT / 12:50 PM ET on Mon Oct 26, 2026. The market has moved since, so treat every price below as a mid-morning snapshot, not a live quote. The 2-year Treasury note auction at 10:00 AM PT came after this snapshot. Quotes are TradingView unless a source is named.

Anthropic's S-1 reached the SEC at 6:00 AM PT. By mid-morning, chip stocks had roughly doubled their pre-market gains, and Brazil's own market had confirmed the crash that US-listed Brazil funds priced overnight.

Two stories ran side by side this morning. In the US, a tech-led bounce widened after Anthropic filed its S-1, the registration document for its IPO and its planned ANT stock listing. In Brazil, the stock exchange confirmed what US-listed Brazil funds had been pricing since the pre-market. Here is where both stood at about 9:50 AM PT.

Anthropic IPO: S-1 filed, ticker ANT, $16.3B revenue, $80.7B loss

Anthropic filed. The SEC's EDGAR system accepted the S-1 at 9:00:11 AM ET / 6:00 AM PT on Monday. The company says it will list on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker ANT, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley leading (Anthropic press release, SEC EDGAR). The share count and price range are not set yet, according to the company. ANT is not trading, so there is no ANT quote to give you.

• H1 2026 revenue: $16.3B, up about 1,300% from a year earlier (the S-1's own growth rate, as reported by Seeking Alpha and Yahoo Finance).
• H1 2026 loss: $80.7B (CNBC).
• Risk factors: 94 pages, including an uninsurable "catastrophic AI-related incident" (WSJ).
• Stakes: CNBC's live blog says the S-1 discloses Alphabet's and Amazon's stakes in Anthropic.

Now the part that is reported, not filed. Seeking Alpha reports a debut the week of Nov 16, raising about $100B at a valuation of $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion. AP says it could top SpaceX's $86B IPO from June. None of that is in the S-1, and the company has not confirmed it. Timing and valuation are press reports until Anthropic says otherwise.

Why the stock market is up today: the tech bounce widens

The pre-market bounce got bigger once the filing hit. QQQ went from +0.58% in pre-market to +0.98%. The semiconductor ETF SMH went from +1.33% to +2.40%. Small caps, which were flat before the open, moved to +0.63%. Reuters and Yahoo Finance tied the chip bid to the Anthropic filing sharpening the AI trade.

• SPY 764.27, +0.57% (Friday close 759.97). It touched 767.73, up 1.02%, at the high and has given back about 3.5 points.
• QQQ 711.28, +0.98%. IWM 277.48, +0.63%. SMH 539.87, +2.40%.
• Chips: MU +2.8%, NVDA +1.9%, AVGO +2.2%, AMD +2.1%.
• Neoclouds reversed: CRWV +3.4%, IREN +4.6%, NBIS +0.8%. CRWV and IREN were down 4.2% and 3.6% in pre-market.
• Cap-weight beat equal-weight: SPY +0.57% vs RSP +0.21%. Last week's equal-weight rotation reversed for a day.
• Sectors: XLK +1.32%, XLY +1.13%, XLC -1.31%. Communication services lagged, with GOOGL -0.5% and Verizon -2.9%.
• Credit: HYG +0.19%.

Other markets, same snapshot:

• WTI crude $102.92, -0.34% (front-month NYMEX, December). It was down 2.06% in pre-market, so oil erased most of its overnight drop. The day's low was $100.33. We're leaving Brent out because sources disagree during the contract roll.
• VIX 18.67, -4.0% (Friday 19.45). It is back under 19.
• 10-year Treasury 4.982%, down 1.7 bp. 2-year 4.703%, up 1.7 bp.
• Dollar index (DXY) 101.95, +0.19%. Gold $4,017.6, +0.55%. Bitcoin $79,807, -0.29%.

Ibovespa circuit breaker: Brazil's market falls 15.5%

This morning's pre-market article asked whether Brazil's US-listed funds had overshot before São Paulo opened. The local market answered. The Ibovespa fell 10% at the 10:00 AM Brasília open (6:00 AM PT), which triggered B3's circuit breaker, the first since early 2020 (Bloomberg Línea). Stocks, ETFs, BDRs and stock options were halted for 30 minutes and reopened through an auction at 10:30 to 10:35 Brasília time (B3, Reuters via UOL).

• Ibovespa 173,213, -15.5% (Friday close 205,082.56). The day's low was 169,516, down 17.3%.
• Local shares: PETR4 -10.8%, ITUB4 -15.3%. Valor counts nine Ibovespa stocks down more than 40%, among them Vamos, Magazine Luiza, B3 itself, Cosan, Cyrela, C&A, Assaí, MRV and Localiza. They are mostly rate-sensitive retail and real estate names.
• USD/BRL 5.44, up 9.6% on TradingView. Reuters had the real about 12% weaker at the open, and Bloomberg Línea had 11%.
• Rates: DI rate swaps rose nearly 300 bp on longer tenors (Bloomberg Línea).
• Bonds: Brazil's Treasury cancelled its Oct 27 and Oct 29 bond auctions, and dollar bonds fell across the curve, with the 2056s down about 3 cents (Reuters via Nikkei Asia).

One open question, and it is Valor's, not ours. Valor reported that a second circuit breaker, at 15%, "should have" been triggered but wasn't, and says it has asked B3 for an explanation. We don't have an answer, so we aren't calling it either way.

EWZ down 22%: the math says it was not an overreaction

The US-listed funds were not an air pocket. EWZ is down 22.0% now, against 27.6% in pre-market. Our desk arithmetic: the Ibovespa is down 15.5% and the dollar is up 9.6% against the real, so (1 - 0.155) / 1.096 - 1 is about -22.9% in dollar terms. EWZ is pricing Brazil about right, not overshooting. The roughly 5-point bounce from pre-market came as US hours opened, not from any local recovery.

• EWZ 33.24, -22.0% (pre-market -27.6%), after a low of 31.40. Volume was about 205M shares.
• XP -48.4% (-50.0% pre-market). Still about half its value gone.
• ITUB -22.0% (-26.6%). NU -18.3% (-25.3%), the biggest relief. PBR -16.3% (-20.8%). MELI -9.3% (-14.8%).
• ABEV -16.2% (-16.1%), no relief. VALE -3.8% (-4.8%). EMBJ -2.1% (-2.6%).
• Also down: BBD -30.0%, SBS -28.8%, PAGS -27.2%, BSBR -12.0% (TradingView screener).

The spread is the story again. The banks, the broker and the fintech took the hit. The global commodity name (Vale) and the dollar earner (Embraer) barely moved.

On the politics: Lula won the runoff 51.8% to 48.2% (Superior Electoral Court). Flávio Bolsonaro has asked for the result to be annulled over the Supreme Court's decision to extend voting hours (Bloomberg Línea, Reuters). There is no ruling yet.

Dealer gamma: SPY's 0DTE book flipped positive, the week is still short

Gamma is how much dealer hedging pushes the market or holds it still. When dealers are long gamma, their hedging tends to dampen moves. When they are short, it can amplify them. This is the desk's model from Cboe delayed option chains, re-pulled at 9:49 AM PT with SPY near 765.35. Open interest is start-of-day, so it does not update intraday.

• Flipped positive: SPY 0DTE gamma is +$0.64B, against -$2.22B in pre-market. The SPY 0DTE flip moved to about 763.8 to 765.0 depending on method, from 765.7 this morning. SPY rallied through it.
• QQQ 0DTE: +$1.11B (about zero this morning), flip near 707.9.
• The week is still short gamma. SPY through Friday, Oct 30: -$5.19B, against -$8.98B in pre-market. QQQ through Oct 30: -$1.06B (-$2.40B).
• Vol sellers took premium out of FOMC week. The SPY implied move through Oct 30 is about 1.41%, down from 1.63% this morning.

What it means: the pre-market short-gamma setup did not last. Once SPY went through its flip, the 0DTE book turned long gamma and the rally stalled at 767.73. That is how we treat the gamma flip: a marker for how volatile the market is, not a call on direction. Through Friday, the book is still short, which is why the Fed on Wednesday still matters.

Will the Fed raise rates this week? Polymarket odds for Oct 28

The Fed decides Wednesday, Oct 28, at 2:00 PM ET / 11:00 AM PT. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference follows at 2:30 PM ET / 11:30 AM PT. Reuters calls a pause "widely expected." Our earlier read on the Warsh Fed is here. Here is Polymarket at about 9:52 AM PT:

• October: no change 92.5%, +25 bp 7.5%. The hike odds were 5.5% this morning, so they drifted up 2 points.
• December: +25 bp 75.5%, no change 21.5%. Unchanged since this morning, and still the real question.
• October dissents: two dissents is the most likely outcome at 32.5%. Zero is 23% and three is 22%.

The nudge came after the Dallas Fed Manufacturing survey, which looked strong on top and firm on prices underneath. General business activity was 13.4 (prior 9.8), against a consensus of 7.0 (Seeking Alpha). But production fell to 15.8 from 29.5, and new orders fell to 9.3 from 30.7. Raw materials prices rose to 55.3. Sentiment is up, current orders are down and price pressure is still building: a small hawkish data point heading into the Fed.

Thursday brings more. Q3 GDP and September PCE both come out at 8:30 AM ET / 5:30 AM PT, with GDP consensus at 3.2% and core PCE at 0.3% month over month. Polymarket has core PCE at 0.3% with 57.5% and 0.4% with 25.5%, which leans hot. Treat that as a lean from prediction-market traders, not a forecast. MSFT and GOOGL report Wednesday after the close, and AMZN reports Thursday after the close.

Why is Verizon stock down today? A beat on EPS, a miss on revenue

Verizon (VZ) is the day's clearest example of a stock selling a good headline. It traded at 43.39, down 2.9%.

• Adjusted EPS $1.31 (up 8.3% from a year ago), against a consensus of $1.28 (Investing.com). Seeking Alpha used $1.27. GAAP EPS was $1.25. Both numbers are from Verizon's release.
• Revenue $34.3B (up 1.5%), a miss against roughly $34.77B (Investing.com).
• Guidance: the 2026 adjusted EPS outlook went up to $5.04 to $5.06, the third raise in a row. The postpaid phone net-add target rose to 1.15M from 875k (Seeking Alpha). Verizon added 406k postpaid phones.
• Why it fell: the desk's read is that the stock is selling the revenue miss and a 9% drop in equipment revenue.

Two other movers with a verified catalyst. Tesla (TSLA) is up 6.1% at 394.91 after a Barclays upgrade to overweight (Reuters), with a $450 target from $370 (Motley Fool). Range Resources (RRC) is up 16.0% at 52.81 on EQT's all-stock offer of 0.987 EQT shares per RRC share, about $12.8B (Seeking Alpha). With EQT at 54.00, the offer implies about $53.30, so the spread is about $0.49, or 0.9%. The market expects it to close. Both companies report Tuesday.

What to watch next

• Anthropic: no event time. The S-1 digestion continues. The reported IPO week of Nov 16 is not confirmed by the company.
• Tuesday, Oct 27: durable goods at 8:30 AM ET, Conference Board confidence at 10:00 AM ET, and earnings from RRC, EQT, KO, BA and V.
• Wednesday, Oct 28: the Fed decision at 2:00 PM ET, then MSFT and GOOGL after the close.
• Thursday, Oct 29: Q3 GDP and September PCE at 8:30 AM ET, then AMZN after the close.
• Brazil: the Treasury's Oct 27 and Oct 29 bond auctions are cancelled, and Valor is waiting on B3's answer.

FAQ

Did Anthropic file its S-1, and what is the ANT ticker?

Yes. Anthropic filed an S-1 with the SEC, and EDGAR accepted it at 9:00:11 AM ET / 6:00 AM PT on Monday, Oct 26. The company says it will list on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker ANT, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley leading. Share count and price range are not set yet, and ANT is not trading.

What is the Anthropic IPO date and valuation?

The filing does not say. Seeking Alpha reports a debut the week of Nov 16, raising about $100B at a valuation of $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion, and AP says it could top SpaceX's $86B IPO from June. Those are press reports, not in the S-1 and not confirmed by the company.

Is Anthropic stock available to buy?

Not yet. ANT is not trading, and the company says the share count and price range are not set. A debut the week of Nov 16 is reported by Seeking Alpha, not confirmed by the company, so there is no ANT price to quote as of about 9:50 AM PT.

What did Anthropic's S-1 show about revenue and losses?

Per the filing as reported, Anthropic had H1 2026 revenue of $16.3B, up about 1,300% from a year earlier (the S-1's own growth rate, as reported by Seeking Alpha and Yahoo Finance), and an H1 loss of $80.7B (CNBC). The S-1 also has 94 pages of risk factors, including an uninsurable catastrophic AI-related incident (WSJ).

Why is the stock market up today?

As of about 9:50 AM PT, SPY was up 0.57%, QQQ up 0.98% and the semiconductor ETF SMH up 2.40%, after Anthropic's S-1 sharpened the AI trade (Reuters, Yahoo Finance). The bounce was wider than in pre-market, when QQQ was up 0.58% and SMH up 1.33%. The market has moved since that snapshot.

Did Brazil's stock market hit a circuit breaker?

Yes. The Ibovespa fell 10% at the open, which triggered B3's first circuit breaker since early 2020 (Bloomberg Línea), and trading halted for 30 minutes. At about 9:50 AM PT the Ibovespa was 173,213, down 15.5%, and EWZ was down 22.0%, against 27.6% in pre-market. USD/BRL was 5.44, up 9.6%.

Will the Fed raise rates this week?

Probably not. At about 9:52 AM PT, Polymarket had 92.5% on no change at the Wednesday, Oct 28 decision (2:00 PM ET / 11:00 AM PT) and 7.5% on a 25 bp hike, up from 5.5% this morning after a firm Dallas Fed prices print. December is the bigger question, with a 25 bp hike at 75.5%.

Why is Verizon stock down today?

Verizon beat on adjusted EPS, $1.31 against a $1.28 consensus, but its $34.3B revenue missed a roughly $34.77B consensus. The desk's read is that the stock is selling the revenue miss and a 9% drop in equipment revenue, even with guidance raised. VZ was down 2.9% at 43.39 at about 9:50 AM PT.

Bottom line

Anthropic's filing gave the AI trade a new reason to run, and chips took it: SMH is up 2.40% and the tech bounce is wider than it was before the open. We can say what the S-1 shows and who is listing it. We can't say when it prices or what it is worth, because that is still reported, not filed. Brazil's market confirmed the crash, and EWZ's 22% drop is about what the Ibovespa and the currency add up to. And the Fed on Wednesday is still the event: a hold is expected, but December is priced at 75.5%.

Follow @CosAnalyst on X for the close recap and the Fed-week updates, and join our free Telegram channel @CosAnalystSignals for desk updates.

BOOK FACT · NOT A TICKET. This is market reporting and desk research, not a trade recommendation.

Sources: TradingView (quotes, screener, economic and earnings calendars, news via Seeking Alpha, Dow Jones and Reuters); Anthropic press release and SEC EDGAR; CNBC, AP, WSJ, Yahoo Finance; Verizon Q3 release and Investing.com (consensus); Dallas Fed; Bloomberg Línea; Reuters via UOL, Nikkei Asia and MarketScreener; B3; Valor Econômico; Polymarket; Cboe delayed chains (desk model).