At 11:36 AM PT the Nasdaq was down more than 3% and the VIX had touched almost 24. Then buyers showed up. Stocks still fell hard on Friday, Oct. 30, 2026, because Intel's weak fourth-quarter guidance turned the week's AI spending worries into a full chip selloff: Intel (INTC) closed down 28.58% at $65.76, which CNBC called its worst day since 1974. But the last two hours were a bounce, not a collapse, and that matters for Monday.
Why did stocks fall today?
Stocks fell because the cost of the AI build-out hit chipmakers. Intel guided fourth-quarter earnings to $0.25 a share on $15 billion to $16 billion of revenue, against consensus near $0.43 and $17.1 billion, and cited PC softness, an Israel plant shutdown and cash burn. That followed Alphabet's record drop after hours on Wednesday, Oct. 28, and Amazon's report of a second straight quarter of negative free cash flow (why are Nasdaq futures down today). The selloff was led by tech, not by rates: the 10-year Treasury yield actually fell 6 basis points to 4.93%.
How did the stock market close today?
All figures are Friday regular-session closes (4:00 PM ET / 1:00 PM PT), versus Thursday's close, from Yahoo Finance data.
- S&P 500: 7,580.07, -1.82% (SPY 755.72, -1.77%)
- Nasdaq Composite: 25,437.00, -2.86% (QQQ 690.49, -3.47%)
- Dow: 51,770.31, -1.09%
- Russell 2000: 2,811.84, -1.66% (IWM 279.33, -1.65%)
- Equal-weight S&P (RSP): 218.31, -0.79%
- VIX: 19.42, +12.9% (high 23.93)
- 10-year yield: 4.93%, -6 bp. Dollar (DXY): 101.89, -0.1%
- WTI crude: $102.76, +0.8%. Brent: $112.34, +1.4%
- Gold: settled $3,885.70 (Barron's), its lowest since Oct. 3, 2025
- Bitcoin: about $76,870, -1.2% (1:42 PM PT)
The closes were better than the midafternoon numbers. Reuters had the S&P 500 down 2.08% and the Nasdaq down 3.37% in its midafternoon update, and as of 11:36 AM PT QQQ was down about 4.3% (why is QQQ down today). By the bell QQQ had pared that to -3.47%, the S&P 500 had climbed about 52 points off its low, and the VIX had fallen from 23.93 back to 19.42. Reuters noted the Nasdaq is now down more than 8% from its Oct. 6 record close.
Intel's record drop drags chips lower
Intel fell 28.58% to $65.76 (low $63.20) on that fourth-quarter guide. CNBC said it was the stock's worst day since 1974 and wiped roughly $12 billion off the value of the U.S. government's stake. Full breakdown: why is Intel stock down today.
The damage spread across chips and hardware. The semiconductor ETF SMH closed down 6.98% and the tech sector ETF XLK fell 4.89%.
- AMD: 504.80, -10.88%
- Dell: 424.30, -10.77%
- HP Inc.: 28.78, -9.58%
- Broadcom: 326.08, -5.48%
- Nvidia: 204.64, -4.22%
- Oracle: 130.67, -6.37%
Two gaps, two endings: Amazon vs Intel
Amazon and Intel both opened deep in the red after earnings. Only one of them got bought. Amazon (AMZN) was near -7% before the open and hit a low of $229.36, then closed at $240.35, down just 1.41%. Its results were a small miss (EPS $1.89 vs $1.96, revenue $201.9 billion vs $202.3 billion) with AWS growth of 39% and 2026 capex held at $220 billion (Amazon's third-quarter release; CNBC). Intel's gap never filled. The market was willing to pay for growing cloud demand. It was not willing to pay for a shrinking forecast.
What stocks went up today?
Six of the 11 sector ETFs closed green, and they were energy plus the defensives: energy (XLE ETF) +1.91%, staples (XLP) +1.41%, utilities (XLU) +0.67%, health care (XLV) +0.45%, materials (XLB) +0.40% and real estate (XLRE) +0.26%. Eli Lilly rose 3.19% to $1,417.54, Merck 2.18% to $149.52, Exxon Mobil 2.16% to $187.25 and Chevron 1.75% to $235.52 after reporting earnings Friday. The equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP, -0.79%) beat the cap-weighted SPY (-1.77%) for a third straight day.
Other big movers
- Reddit (RDDT): 91.73, -29.22% on a weak fourth-quarter guide (CNBC)
- Roblox (RBLX): 42.99, -18.05%
- Strategy (MSTR): 130.51, -7.84% after a third-quarter revenue miss, with crypto names hit by the reported Binance hack
- Caterpillar (CAT): 622.75, -3.81%, after Thursday's 9% drop
- Megacaps: Alphabet -1.40%, Microsoft -1.55%, Meta -1.53%, Apple -1.23%, Tesla -0.87%
Gold falls on a risk-off day
Gold fell about 3.6% and settled at $3,885.70, its lowest since Oct. 3, 2025 and roughly 27% below its record (Barron's). It did not act as a haven on a risk-off day. Money went into Treasuries, energy and defensive stocks instead. More: why gold is down today.
What are Fed rate hike odds now?
On Polymarket at 1:43 PM PT, a 25 basis point hike in December was priced at 70.5%, down 3 points on the day. A December hold was 27.5%. For January, a hold was 70.5%. Two hikes in 2026 was 72% and one hike was 27%. The crowd is leaning toward one more hike and then a pause. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said further hikes may be needed soon (CNBC, Reuters), but bonds rallied anyway.
Key levels for Monday
Options positioning from CBOE data (based on Thursday open interest) shows dealers short gamma heading into next week, which tends to make moves bigger in both directions. The biggest put open interest sits at SPY 750, right under Friday's 750.36 low. For QQQ, the 680 strike is the big put wall, and Friday's 683.45 low stopped just above it. A break below those levels would mean the late-day bounce failed. Holding them keeps the bounce alive.
For history on what QQQ has done after big down days, see our study: what happens after QQQ drops 4% in a day.
Next week's catalyst calendar (all times PT)
Clocks fall back on Sunday, Nov. 1. Pacific time stays three hours behind Eastern.
| Day | Time (PT) | Event |
|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 2 | 7:00 AM | ISM manufacturing |
| Mon Nov 2 | 2:00 PM | Apple fiscal Q4 earnings call (results after the close) |
| Tue Nov 3 | All day | U.S. midterm elections |
| Tue Nov 3 | 7:00 AM | JOLTS job openings |
| Wed Nov 4 | 5:15 AM | ADP employment |
| Wed Nov 4 | 7:00 AM | ISM services |
| Fri Nov 6 | 5:30 AM | October jobs report (BLS) |
| Dec 8-9 | Next FOMC meeting |
Sources: Apple investor relations, BLS, ISM release schedules.
FAQ
Why did stocks fall today?
The S&P 500 fell 1.82% and the Nasdaq 2.86% on Friday, Oct. 30, 2026, after Intel's weak fourth-quarter guidance sent the stock down 28.58% and dragged chipmakers lower. The semiconductor ETF SMH fell 6.98%. Worries about AI spending and cash burn, after Alphabet and Amazon results, drove the selloff.
Did stocks bounce at the end of the day?
Yes. The S&P 500 closed at 7,580.07, about 52 points above its 7,527.56 low, and QQQ pared its loss to 3.47%. The VIX fell from an intraday high of 23.93 to 19.42. Amazon also recovered most of its premarket drop, closing down just 1.41% at $240.35.
What is on the market calendar next week?
Clocks fall back on Sunday, Nov. 1. Monday brings ISM manufacturing at 7:00 AM PT and Apple fiscal fourth-quarter results after the close, with its call at 2:00 PM PT. Tuesday is the U.S. midterm election, and the October jobs report is due Friday, Nov. 6 at 5:30 AM PT.
Will the Fed raise rates in December?
Polymarket priced a 25 basis point December hike at 70.5% as of 1:43 PM PT Friday, down 3 points on the day, with a hold at 27.5%. Two hikes in 2026 was priced at 72%. The next FOMC meeting is Dec. 8-9. This is market pricing, not a forecast.
Sources and disclaimer
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Do your own research or talk to a licensed professional before making investment decisions.
Sources: Yahoo Finance (closes), CBOE (options open interest), Polymarket (Fed odds, 1:43 PM PT), Amazon investor relations, Reuters, CNBC, Barron's. Calculations by CosAnalyst.
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