Intel beat on the quarter it just finished and still lost about a quarter of its value before the sun came up. As of 5:52 AM PT, INTC traded near $68.60 in premarket, down about 25.5% from Thursday's $92.07 close (Yahoo Finance data). Earlier prints reached about -27%. The reason is the next quarter, not the last one.

Why is Intel stock down today?

Intel is down about 25.5% premarket as of 5:52 AM PT because its Q4 guide missed badly, even after a Q3 beat. Intel sees revenue of $15 billion to $16 billion versus about $17.07 billion expected and adjusted EPS of $0.25 versus $0.43, with margins and cash flow under pressure.

  • Q3 was fine. Revenue rose 21% to $16.51 billion, in line with estimates. Adjusted EPS of $0.52 beat the roughly $0.40 consensus (Reuters, LSEG data).
  • The Q4 guide was not. Intel sees revenue of $15 billion to $16 billion versus about $17.07 billion expected, and adjusted EPS of $0.25 versus $0.43 (Reuters, LSEG).
  • Margins step down. Intel guided Q4 adjusted gross margin to about 38%, from 43% in Q3 (Yahoo Finance).
  • Cash burn. CFO David Zinsner said Intel does not expect positive cash flow this year, with capital spending near $20 billion and rising sharply in 2027 (Reuters).

Why the guide matters more than the beat

Stocks price the future. Intel had more than doubled this year on a turnaround story built around AI server demand and its foundry plan. A guide that implies revenue falling from Q3 to Q4 breaks the "every quarter gets better" narrative the rally was built on.

Three things hit at once:

  • PCs. Memory chip prices have surged as data center builders outbid everyone else, which raises PC costs and hurts demand. Intel expects client (PC) revenue to fall by more than 20% from Q3 and sees the PC slump lasting at least through the first half of 2027. Morningstar notes PCs are still 50% to 60% of Intel revenue in a normal quarter.
  • Israel. An explosion at the Kiryat Gat fab in October halted production for about two weeks. Intel told Reuters it expects about $600 million of lost revenue over two quarters, roughly $300 million in Q4, plus about 200 basis points off gross margin.
  • Supply limits on the good part. Data center revenue grew 78% year over year, per Morningstar, but substrate shortages and manufacturing yields cap how much Intel can ship.

If the guide holds, analysts cut estimates for several quarters, not one. That is why the reaction is sized like a reset rather than a miss.

Is this Intel's worst day since 1974?

Reuters calculated that a 23% drop in the regular session would erase more than $112 billion of Intel's market value. At today's premarket pace the number would be larger. Intel's previous worst day since 1974 was a 26% drop on Aug. 2, 2024 (Reuters). So "worst day since 1974" requires the stock to close down more than about 26%. A close between 23% and 26% would be very bad but not a new record.

You may see "$400 billion lost" on X. That figure measures the drop from Intel's June 30 record high, not today's move.

Intel price target cuts after earnings

  • Morningstar cut its fair value estimate to $85 from $105.
  • JPMorgan trimmed its target to $80 from $85, Piper Sandler to $90 from $110, and Jefferies to $85 from $120 (TradingKey).

The wider tape

As of 5:52 AM PT (Yahoo Finance data), Nasdaq 100 futures were down about 2.6%, Amazon about 7.4% and SMH about 5.2%. For the full index, Amazon and options picture, see why Nasdaq futures are down today. The AI spending worry also ties back to Alphabet's after-hours move on Oct 28.

  • Chip peers were lower premarket, including Arm, AMD, Micron, Nvidia and ASML (CNBC, ChainCatcher).
  • Reuters says Amazon and Intel together are on track to lose about $300 billion in value if losses hold.

What to watch at the 6:30 AM PT open

  • The opening print versus premarket. Premarket volume is thin. If INTC opens near $68 to $69 and holds, the market is accepting the reset. If buyers lift it toward the low $70s in the first 30 minutes, the gap is being treated as overdone.
  • The 26% line. A close below about $68.13 (down more than about 26% from $92.07) would make it the worst day since 1974. Watch whether that level acts as a floor or gives way.
  • Morningstar's $85 and the sell-side targets. The stock now trades well below most cut targets. That gap can attract value buyers or signal more cuts coming.
  • Peers. If AMD, Micron and Arm recover while Intel does not, this is an Intel story. If they keep sliding, it is a sector and AI spending story.
  • Nasdaq futures. A 2.6% gap down in NQ with Amazon weak means Intel is not the only pressure. Breadth at the open will tell you which story is driving.

What we don't know yet

  • How fast the memory crunch eases, and whether PC makers keep cutting chip orders.
  • Whether the Israel fab is fully back to speed, and how big the Q1 hit really is.
  • How large 2027 capital spending gets.

FAQ

Why is Intel stock down today?

Intel fell about 25.5% premarket as of 5:52 AM PT because its Q4 guide missed badly. It sees revenue of $15 billion to $16 billion versus about $17.07 billion expected and adjusted EPS of $0.25 versus $0.43, citing a PC slump from surging memory prices and an Israel fab outage.

Did Intel beat earnings?

Yes. Q3 revenue rose 21% to $16.51 billion, in line with estimates, and adjusted EPS of $0.52 beat the roughly $0.40 consensus, per Reuters and LSEG. The stock is falling on the outlook instead: lower Q4 revenue, gross margin near 38% from 43%, and no positive cash flow expected this year.

Is this Intel's worst day since 1974?

Only if it closes down more than about 26%, below roughly $68.13 from Thursday's $92.07 close. As of 5:52 AM PT it was near $68.60, down about 25.5%. Intel's prior worst day since 1974 was a 26% drop on Aug. 2, 2024, per Reuters. A close between 23% and 26% would be severe but would not set a new record.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Prices are premarket and can change quickly. Do your own research or talk to a licensed professional before making investment decisions.

Sources: CNBC (cnbc.com/2026/10/30/amazon-intel-earnings-big-tech-ai-spending-concerns.html), Reuters via RTE (rte.ie/news/business/2026/1030/1597308-intel-quarterly-results/), Reuters via Investing.com, Yahoo Finance (Stocktwits), Morningstar, TradingKey, ChainCatcher.

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