Nasdaq 100 futures are down about 2.6% before the open as Amazon turns AI spending from a growth story into a cash bill, and Intel's weak Q4 guide hits chips. As of 5:52 AM PT, NQ traded at 28,785 (-2.6%), ES at 7,668.75 (-1.1%) and RTY at 2,849.6 (-0.6%) (Yahoo Finance data). The damage is concentrated in mega cap tech and chips, while small caps and the equal weight index hold up far better.
Why are Nasdaq futures down today?
Nasdaq 100 futures were down about 2.6% as of 5:52 AM PT because Amazon's Q3 capex of $77.3 billion blew past the roughly $58.7 billion expected, with more promised for 2027. Intel's weak Q4 guide piled onto chips, and negative dealer gamma can stretch the move.
- Amazon spent far more than expected. Q3 capex was $77.3 billion versus about $58.7 billion expected, trailing free cash flow is -$42.4 billion, and CEO Andy Jassy said 2027 capex will be "meaningfully more." AMZN is near $225.66 premarket (-7.4%) as of 5:52 AM PT.
- Intel's weak Q4 guide. INTC is near $68.60 (-25.5%) as of 5:52 AM PT. Full breakdown: why is Intel stock down today
- Chips follow. SMH is at $532.65 premarket (-5.2%) as of 5:52 AM PT.
- Options positioning can amplify moves. SPY and QQQ 0DTE gamma is deeply negative (CBOE-computed GEX from delayed chains), which tends to mean dealers chase price rather than dampen it.
Why is Amazon stock down today?
Amazon's quarter was close to estimates on the surface: EPS of $1.89 versus $1.96 expected and revenue of $201.9 billion versus $202.3 billion. AWS grew 39% to $46.0 billion, ahead of consensus, though buy side hopes were near 43%. The Q4 guide midpoint came in below consensus.
The issue is spending. A $77.3 billion capex quarter against roughly $58.7 billion expected, negative trailing free cash flow of $42.4 billion, and a promise of more in 2027 tells investors the AI build-out bill keeps growing before the payoff is visible. That is the "capex bill comes due" story, and it hits every hyperscaler multiple at once.
Other mega caps premarket as of 5:52 AM PT: NVDA -2.4%, META -1.8%, GOOGL -1.2%, AAPL -0.9%, MSFT -0.4%. For the Alphabet backdrop, see why Google stock fell after hours on Oct 28.
Intel's guide adds to the chip selloff
We covered Intel in detail earlier this morning, so we will not repeat it here. The short version: a weak Q4 guide knocked INTC about 25.5% lower premarket and dragged semis with it.
Nasdaq futures, SPY and QQQ levels before the open
As of 5:52 AM PT (Yahoo Finance data):
- SPY: $761.43 premarket, -1.03% versus $769.36 close
- QQQ: $697.21, -2.53%
- IWM: $282.31, -0.60%
- SMH: $532.65, -5.17%
Volatility and options positioning
- VIX 18.58 as of 5:52 AM PT versus 17.20 prior close. VVIX 98.01 and SKEW 151 (CBOE, 5:24 to 5:36 AM PT snapshot).
- GEX levels below are from the 5:24 to 5:36 AM PT CBOE snapshot.
- SPY 0DTE GEX about -$6.2 billion, gamma flip near 768.7 (771.7 across all expirations). Put walls 765, 760, 755; call wall 770.
- QQQ 0DTE GEX about -$5.0 billion, flip 714.75, put levels 690 and 700.
- IWM 0DTE GEX about +$0.48 billion, flip near 282, call 284, put 278.
- Implied moves today: SPY ±0.54% (about 757.3 to 765.5 off the 5:52 AM PT print of 761.43), QQQ ±1.02%, IWM ±1.12%.
GEX figures are CBOE-computed from delayed option chains and are estimates. Deeply negative gamma usually means trend and volatility rather than mean reversion, so the realized range today may exceed the implied move. It is a tendency, not a forecast.
Rates, dollar and commodities
- Treasuries (FRED, 10/29): 10Y 4.989% (-5.6bp), 5Y 4.801%, 3M 3.998%, 30Y 5.329%; 2s10s +0.37. 10Y real yield 2.67% (10/28).
- Credit: HY OAS 3.14 (FRED, 10/28), still tight.
- DXY 101.67 and Gold about $3,970 (5:24 to 5:36 AM PT). Bitcoin about $77.2k as of 5:52 AM PT.
- Oil: WTI crude $104.26 as of 5:52 AM PT, Brent $113.27 (5:24 to 5:36 AM PT). Brent's December contract expires today, so the print is noisy.
Macro: ECI in line, Fed path still hawkish
The Q3 Employment Cost Index rose 0.8% q/q, matching the 0.8% estimate, and 3.4% y/y (BLS). Wages +0.7%, benefits +0.9%. SPY barely moved on the release.
Thursday's context: September core PCE rose 0.32% m/m with a 2.9% three-month annualized rate (via @NickTimiraos), Q3 real GDP grew 3.4% (via @JosephPolitano), and the Fed held in October with two dissents.
Polymarket odds (December as of 5:53 AM PT; others as of 5:24 AM PT):
- December hike 71.5% for 25bp plus 2% for 50bp or more (down from 76.5%); hold 24.5%
- January hike 26%
- March: hike 45.5% versus hold 48%
- US recession in 2026: 6.5%
Breadth is better than the headline
Thursday (10/29) breadth told a different story than the Nasdaq. 8 of 11 sectors closed above their 50-day averages. RSP gained 1.20% and IWM 0.97% while QQQ fell 1.42% and SPY 0.38%. Versus their 50-day averages: XLV +7.0%, XLE ETF +6.0%, XLP +4.3%, while XLC sits -8.8% and XLK -0.5%. Money is rotating, not leaving.
Month-end matters too. QQQ is roughly -5.8% month to date while SPY is about flat, which could set up a pension rebalancing bid into the close. That is an estimate, not a confirmed flow.
What to watch today (all times PT)
- Pre-open earnings: XOM, CVX, ABBV, AZN, GD (via @bespokeinvest)
- 6:30 AM: cash open. Watch SPY versus the 765 put wall and 768.7 flip
- 6:45 AM: Chicago PMI
- 7:00 AM: UMich sentiment (final)
- 12:30 PM: CFTC Commitments of Traders. Leveraged funds were last net short about 371k ES contracts
- 1:00 PM: close, with month-end flows
FAQ
Why are Nasdaq futures down today?
Nasdaq 100 futures were down about 2.6% as of 5:52 AM PT Friday after Amazon reported $77.3 billion of Q3 capex versus about $58.7 billion expected and said 2027 spending will be meaningfully higher. Intel's weak guide added pressure on chips, with SMH down about 5% premarket.
Why is Amazon stock down today?
Amazon fell about 7% premarket as of 5:52 AM PT because spending outran expectations. Q3 capex was $77.3 billion versus about $58.7 billion expected, trailing free cash flow was negative $42.4 billion and the Q4 guide midpoint came in below consensus. AWS grew 39% to $46.0 billion, but buy side hopes were near 43%.
What does negative GEX mean for today's open?
Negative gamma exposure means options dealers tend to hedge in the direction of the move, buying into rallies and selling into drops. That can push the realized range wider than the implied move. GEX here is a CBOE-computed estimate from delayed chains, so treat it as a tendency, not a forecast.
Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Markets carry risk, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Data is premarket as of 5:52 AM PT unless noted and may change.
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