Update (Nov 3, ~11:05 PM PT)
Decision Desk HQ projects Republican Pete Ricketts wins the Nebraska Senate race (10:34 PM PT). In Alaska, the Senate race is razor close with about 54% in: Democrat Mary Peltola had 48.3% to Republican Dan Sullivan's 48.1% (DDHQ, 10:41 PM PT). DDHQ also projects Republican French Hill holds Arkansas's 2nd House district, 50.9% to 49.1% with about 99% in (10:48 PM PT), after trailing earlier in the night (Decision Desk HQ).
Senate control was already called for Democrats (see the 8:35 PM PT update). These races now decide how big that margin ends up. No new verified futures numbers since the last update.
Your call: Does the size of the Democratic Senate margin matter for tomorrow's open, or has the market already priced in the sweep? Pick a side in the comments.
Update (Nov 3, ~10:35 PM PT)
Decision Desk HQ now projects Democrat Abdul El-Sayed wins the Michigan Senate race (10:15 PM PT), confirming VoteHub's earlier 9:49 PM PT projection. With about 72% of the vote in, El-Sayed had 51.2% to Mike Rogers' 46.9%. DDHQ also projects Democrat Troy Jackson wins the Maine Senate race (10:10 PM PT), the seat held by Susan Collins, and projects Kurt Alme wins the Montana Senate race (10:13 PM PT) (Decision Desk HQ).
Still too close to call per DDHQ: in Mississippi's Senate race, Scott Colom (D) had 49.1% to Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) at 48.8% with about 98% in. In Nebraska's Senate race, Pete Ricketts (R) had 49.0% to Dan Osborn (I) at 45.2% with about 81% in. In the Kansas governor race, Cindy Holscher (D) had 50.3% to Ty Masterson (R) at 49.7% with about 97% in.
Your call: Does a wider Democratic Senate margin make tomorrow's selloff worse, or does a bigger cushion actually calm markets? Pick a side in the comments.
Update (Nov 3, ~8:35 PM PT)
Networks now project Democrats win control of the Senate (VoteHub at 8:04 PM PT, HuffPost at 8:33 PM PT). With Decision Desk HQ's 6:15 PM PT House call, and CNN (7:07 PM PT) and NBC (7:09 PM PT) also projecting a Democratic House, both chambers are now called. The Maine and Michigan Senate races remain uncalled, and polls in Alaska had not yet closed. DDHQ also projected Democrat Rob Sand wins the Iowa governor race, a GOP-held seat. Trump said he is "absolutely willing to accept" the results (Walter Bloomberg).
Asia felt it. South Korea's Kospi fell as much as 3.7% as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix dropped at least 4% each, and Japan's Nikkei 225 was down about 3.6%, per Bloomberg via The Straits Times.
Your call: Is a full Democratic sweep a dip to buy or the start of a real repricing of the AI trade? Tell us where you stand in the comments.
Update (Nov 3, ~6:40 PM PT)
Decision Desk HQ projected at 6:15 PM PT that Democrats win control of the US House (DDHQ via Walter Bloomberg). The Senate has not been called as of this update, and AP also projected Kathy Hochul wins the New York governor race (AP via Walter Bloomberg). At 5:44 PM PT, Nasdaq e-mini futures were down 1.8% and S&P e-mini futures were down 0.8% (Walter Bloomberg).
Update (Nov 3, ~6:30 PM PT)
Polymarket now has Democrats at about 99.6% to control the House and about 99.2% to control the Senate, as of about 6:15 PM PT (Polymarket House, Polymarket Senate). Neither chamber had been called at that point, and prediction-market odds are not results. CNBC's 6 PM PT update had Nasdaq 100 futures down 1.6% and S&P 500 futures down 0.7%, a bit off the earlier lows (CNBC).
At 4 PM ET on Tuesday the Nasdaq had just snapped a three-day losing streak on a chip rebound. Three hours later, as polls closed and the counts came in blue, Nasdaq 100 futures had given back all of it and more. By about 5:45 PM PT they were down roughly 1.9%, at the lowest level since July 26, per The Kobeissi Letter.
The trigger was not one race. It was the market repricing a near-certain Democratic sweep of Congress, and with it, the odds of tighter rules on the AI data-center buildout that has carried this market.
Why are stock futures falling tonight?
- Sweep odds jumped. Polymarket odds of Democratic control rose to about 99.6% for the House and 99.2% for the Senate by about 6:15 PM PT (House, Senate). DDHQ has since projected Democrats win the House; the Senate has not been called.
- The AI trade is the target. Investors fear a big Democratic win means more data-center restrictions nationwide, CNBC reported, with the Texas governor race flagged as a key swing (CNBC).
- Texas. zerohedge said Nasdaq futures fell as the Texas governor race swung toward Democrat Hinojosa, framing it as a threat to the state's data-center buildout (zerohedge). That race had not been called when we published.
- Speed. The S&P 500 erased about $500 billion in market value in roughly two hours, per Kobeissi.
The numbers at about 6 PM PT
- Nasdaq 100 futures: about -1.9% at the 5:45 PM PT low (Kobeissi); zerohedge flagged a 2% decline (zerohedge); about -1.6% at CNBC's 6 PM PT update (CNBC)
- S&P 500 futures: about -0.9%; Dow futures about -0.5% (Kobeissi); S&P about -0.7% at CNBC's 6 PM PT update (CNBC)
- Crude oil about -1.0%; gold about +0.7% (Kobeissi)
- 10-year Treasury yield down 6 to 7 bps to about 4.907% (Mike Zaccardi); 2-year down 6 bps to 4.573% (First Squawk)
- Dollar lower, Treasuries bid (Bloomberg)
- Asia AI names, as reported on X: Kioxia -13%, Advantest -8.1%, SoftBank -7%, KOSPI -2% (post)
Races called so far
Early calls included Democrat Jon Ossoff in Georgia and Democrat Mark Warner in Virginia, both Senate re-elections (NST/Reuters). Calls are moving fast; check a live results tracker before relying on any list.
Is the dip a buy? What the Street said before tonight
JPMorgan saw a blue wave knocking the S&P 500 down about half a percent on Wednesday, and history says post-midterm moves usually lean higher over the following months, CNBC reported (CNBC). Futures are already past that half-percent estimate. History is a tendency, not a promise, and this market came into the night already in a Nasdaq 100 correction.
If/then for Wednesday
- If Nasdaq 100 futures hold near -2% into the cash open, then the July 26 area becomes the line traders watch, and AI and data-center names likely set the tone.
- If they recover to -1% or better, then tonight reads as a fast repricing that was mostly priced, and dip buyers have the first word.
- If they break meaningfully below -2%, then the move is no longer just an election headline, and a VIX above 20 (CNBC said VIX futures crossed it) becomes the risk gauge to respect.
- If the 10-year stays near 4.90% or lower, then bonds are cushioning the hit; a snap back above about 4.95%, Tuesday's close area, would remove that cushion.
- If Texas is called for Hinojosa, then expect the data-center story to get louder; if it flips back, that leg of the selloff has room to unwind.
Earlier today: Is the Stock Market Open on Election Day? What Options Are Pricing for Tonight.
FAQ
Why is the stock market down tonight?
Futures fell as election results pointed to a Democratic sweep of Congress, raising fears of tighter rules on AI data centers. Tech led the decline.
How much are Nasdaq futures down?
About 1.9% around 6 PM PT on Nov. 3, 2026, with S&P 500 futures about 0.9% lower, per The Kobeissi Letter.
Will stocks recover after the midterms?
Nobody knows. Historically the months after midterms have often been positive, but past patterns do not guarantee future results.
Sources and disclaimer
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Futures move fast overnight and figures here may be stale. Nothing here guarantees any outcome.
Follow @CosAnalyst on X for overnight updates.