Tonight, around 3 PM Pacific, the first polls close in Indiana and Kentucky. An hour later, the cash market shuts. Then, at 6 PM Eastern, stock futures reopen into an election night with no closing bell to stop them. So yes, the stock market is open on Election Day. The better question is what options traders are paying for tonight, and the answer is: more than you might think, and not all of it is about the vote.
Is the stock market open on Election Day 2026?
Yes. The NYSE and Nasdaq are open normal hours on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026: 9:30 AM to 4:00 PM ET, or 6:30 AM to 1:00 PM PT. Election Day is not on the NYSE holiday calendar for 2026. The next market holiday is Thanksgiving, Thursday, Nov. 26, with an early 1:00 PM ET close the day after. Bond markets are also open today.
After the close, the NYSE's late trading session runs to 8:00 PM ET, and stock index futures reopen at 6:00 PM ET. That is the window where election results meet live prices.
When do polls close, and when could results move futures?
According to CBS News, the first polls close at 6 PM ET (3 PM PT) in the eastern parts of Indiana and Kentucky. Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia and most of Florida follow at 7 PM ET (4 PM PT), right as the cash market's after-hours session is getting started. Here is the rest of the night in Pacific time:
| Polls close (ET) | Pacific | Notable states (CBS News) |
|---|---|---|
| 6:00 PM | 3:00 PM | Eastern Indiana and Kentucky |
| 7:00 PM | 4:00 PM | Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia, most of Florida |
| 7:30 PM | 4:30 PM | North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia |
| 8:00 PM | 5:00 PM | Pennsylvania, Florida panhandle, New Jersey, Illinois and others |
| 9:00 PM | 6:00 PM | Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Texas, New York and others |
| 10:00 PM | 7:00 PM | Nevada, Iowa, Montana, Utah and others |
| 11:00 PM | 8:00 PM | California, Oregon, Washington, Idaho |
Source: CBS News. A closing time is not a result; counting pace varies by state.
Our read: the 6 PM ET futures reopen lines up with the first real returns. If control of the House or Senate looks clear by the 9 PM ET wave, futures have most of the night to price it. If key races stay close, the move may wait for Wednesday's cash open, which is exactly when SPY's Wednesday options expire.
How has the S&P 500 done after midterms?
History leans constructive, with real exceptions. Deutsche Bank's research found the S&P 500 rose in 21 of the last 23 midterm cycles over the window from one month before the vote to two months after, with a median gain of 7%. The two exceptions, 1978 and 2018, both had rate fears at the center.
Separately, Truist's Keith Lerner has noted the S&P 500 gained an average of 6.6% in the fourth quarter of midterm years since 1950, rising 84% of the time, as reported by The WealthAdvisor. Those are averages across very different economies. They describe a tendency, not a promise. And 2026 has its own rate fear: Polymarket traders give a December Fed hike better-than-even odds, which looks more like 1978 and 2018 than a typical cycle.
What options are pricing for today and tonight
SPY's options expiring today (Nov. 3) priced an at-the-money straddle of about $4.78 at the 754 strike, or roughly ±0.63% from the 753.87 premarket price, per CBOE delayed quotes at 5:50 AM PT. That is about 749 to 759. Wednesday's SPY expiry, which spans tonight's results, priced about ±1.17%, nearly double. QQQ's same-day straddle priced about ±1.06% at the 683 strike (CBOE, 5:16 AM PT), and its Wednesday straddle about ±2.1%.
Volatility indexes tell the same story. The VIX was 20.89 at 5:35 AM PT, down from Monday's 21.15 close. At Monday's close, the 9-day VIX (22.46) sat above both the 30-day VIX (21.15) and the 3-month VIX3M (21.60), per Yahoo Finance. When near-term volatility costs more than longer-dated volatility, the front of the curve is inverted: traders are paying up for the next week specifically, which covers the election, AMD, and Friday's jobs report.
SPY levels below are a CosAnalyst gamma estimate from CBOE open interest, as of 5:50 AM PT Nov 3. They are our positioning calculation, not exchange data and not a forecast.
| SPY level | What it is (CosAnalyst estimate) |
|---|---|
| 771 | Gamma flip, all expiries. Below it, dealers are estimated short gamma |
| 758 | Call wall, today's expiry (largest call open interest in our model) |
| 753.87 | SPY premarket, 5:50 AM PT |
| 745 | Put wall, today's expiry |
Dealers short gamma tend to hedge in the direction of the move, which can make swings bigger rather than smaller.
Put those together and the setup is simple. SPY is trading well below its estimated 771 flip, so dealer hedging is more likely to add to a move than absorb it. The options-implied range for today (about 749 to 759) sits almost exactly between the 745 put wall and the 758 call wall. A clean break of either, especially after hours when liquidity is thin, is the condition to watch. That is a map of where hedging pressure sits, not a call on direction.
The rest of today's tape: Apple, Palantir, chips, AMD
- Apple was about $323.70 premarket, roughly 4.3% below Monday's $338.32 close, after earnings (Yahoo Finance, 5:50 AM PT).
- Palantir was about $167.80 premarket, roughly 5.9% below Monday's $178.34 close, after earnings.
- Semis are bouncing. SOXX was about $471 premarket, up roughly 3.9% from Monday's $453.65 close, after Bespoke noted it had slipped below its 200-day moving average for the first time since June 2025.
- AMD reports after the close today and was up about 4.6% premarket. Its results land in the same after-hours window as the first poll closings.
- Futures: S&P 500 futures +0.26% and Nasdaq 100 futures +0.84% vs prior settle at 5:40 AM PT.
- Jobs report Friday, the last big data point before markets fully digest the new Congress.
Fed odds: why the election is not the only rate story
On Polymarket, a 25 bp December rate hike was priced at 72.5% and no change at 25.5%, as of 5:50 AM PT. A hike priced that heavily is the backdrop for every scenario tonight. A result markets read as more fiscal spending could feed that rate fear; gridlock has historically been the calmer outcome. For more on December, see our Fed hike odds hub.
FAQ
Is the stock market open on Election Day?
Yes. The NYSE and Nasdaq are open regular hours, 9:30 AM to 4:00 PM ET, on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026. Election Day is not an NYSE holiday.
Is the stock market closed on Election Day?
No. US stock markets have not closed for Election Day in decades. Futures also trade through election night after reopening at 6 PM ET.
What time do the polls close?
The first polls close at 6 PM ET (3 PM PT) in parts of Indiana and Kentucky, with the main waves at 7, 8 and 9 PM ET. West Coast polls close at 11 PM ET (8 PM PT), per CBS News.
How does the stock market react to midterm elections?
Deutsche Bank found the S&P 500 rose in 21 of the last 23 midterm cycles from one month before to two months after the vote, with a 7% median gain. The exceptions, 1978 and 2018, were driven by rate fears. Past patterns do not guarantee future results.
Sources and disclaimer
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. It does not predict election outcomes or market direction. Options-implied moves are market prices, not forecasts, and SPY gamma levels are a CosAnalyst estimate. Nothing here guarantees any outcome. Do your own research or talk to a licensed professional before making investment decisions.
Sources: NYSE holiday and hours calendar, CBS News poll closing times, Deutsche Bank research (via Finvaulta), Truist (via The WealthAdvisor), CBOE delayed options quotes (SPY 5:50 AM PT, QQQ 5:16 AM PT Nov 3), Yahoo Finance (VIX, VIX9D, VIX3M, AAPL, PLTR, SOXX, AMD, ES=F, NQ=F, 5:35 to 5:50 AM PT), Polymarket (5:50 AM PT), Bespoke Investment Group on X, CosAnalyst desk gamma estimate. Times are Pacific unless noted.
Follow @CosAnalyst on X for live election-night market reads.