Oil prices are down about 7% today, with WTI near $96.50 and Brent near $104.90, after Iran signaled it is open to resolving the conflict through talks with the US. The stock market today is bouncing, but the S&P 500 has faded to about +0.2% from a stronger open, while the Dow (+0.8%) and small caps (+0.8%) lead. Polymarket still puts a December Fed rate hike at 72.5%, and Apple reports after the close.
Why Are Oil Prices Down Today?
Crude is on track for its biggest one-day drop since July 27 on US-Iran peace-talk hopes. Iran's President Pezeshkian said the supreme leader authorized seeking a resolution through dialogue (IRNA via Reuters), and the Wall Street Journal reported that Vice President Vance sent a message to Mohsen Rezaei.
| Market | Level | Move |
|---|---|---|
| WTI crude | ~$96.53 | -7.3% |
| Brent crude | ~$104.88 | -7.5% |
| Gold | ~$3,968 | +1.8% |
| Bitcoin | ~$76,800 | -1.8% |
| 10-year Treasury yield | ~4.88% | about -5bp |
If/then: if the talks produce a concrete timeline, cheaper energy could keep easing inflation worries. If they stall, the drop could reverse just as fast, because headlines are moving this market more than barrels are.
How Is the Stock Market Doing Today?
| Index | Level | Move |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ~7,595 | +0.2% |
| Dow | ~52,203 | +0.8% |
| Nasdaq Composite | ~25,474 | +0.1% |
| Russell 2000 | ~2,834 | +0.8% |
| VIX | ~19.5 |
The bounce is broad but it is fading off the open high. The equal-weight S&P (RSP, +0.85%) is beating the cap-weight SPY (+0.2%), the same pattern that ran through October: tech is the drag, not the whole market. Per the TCOS desk, 9 of 11 sectors are up, led by consumer discretionary (XLY +2.7%), financials (XLF +1.8%) and materials (XLB +1.7%). Tech (XLK -1.1%) and energy (XLE -2.8%) are the laggards, with energy following oil lower.
Did ISM Manufacturing Beat?
Yes. The ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 55.5, above the roughly 54.6 consensus and up from 54.5. Production hit 59.0, its highest since November 2021. Prices paid eased to 75.2 from 77.9 but remain high. The S&P Global manufacturing PMI was softer at 54.9 versus 56 expected, so the factory picture is solid but not uniform.
What Are the Fed Rate Hike Odds for December?
Per Polymarket at midday:
- December 25bp hike: 72.5%, up from 70.5% at 5:22 AM PT
- December hold: 25.5%
- Recession by the end of 2026: 5.5%
A strong ISM print nudged hike odds higher even as oil fell and yields eased. Friday's October jobs report (consensus about 65k) is the next big test.
Biggest Stock Movers Today
- Amazon (AMZN): about +4% near $250 after PhillipCapital upgraded it to Buy with a $330 target.
- Oracle (ORCL): about -6.8% near $121.80 after filing a $10 billion stock sale alongside $10 billion in bonds.
- Marvell (MRVL) and Lumentum (LITE): MRVL about -10% and LITE about -15% after the roughly $115 billion all-stock deal (CNBC).
- Intel (INTC): about -5.9% near $61.90, with no fresh company-specific news.
- Apple (AAPL): about -2.1% near $337.50 ahead of earnings after the close.
What to Watch for Apple Earnings and the Rest of the Week
- Today, 12 PM PT: Treasury refunding estimates.
- After the close: Apple and Palantir earnings. If Apple holds up, the Nasdaq has a shot at catching up to the broad market. If it disappoints, tech's lag likely deepens.
- Tuesday: midterm elections and JOLTS. Polymarket has Democrats at 94.5% for the House and 72.5% for the Senate.
- Wednesday: ADP, the Treasury refunding statement and ISM services.
- Friday: October jobs report.
FAQ
Why is oil down so much today? Iran said it is willing to seek a resolution through dialogue, and reports of direct US outreach raised hopes for a deal. WTI is down about 7%.
Is the stock market up today? Yes, modestly. The Dow and small caps are up about 0.8%, while the S&P 500 is up about 0.2% and the Nasdaq is roughly flat.
What are the odds of a Fed rate hike in December? Polymarket shows 72.5% for a 25bp hike and 25.5% for a hold as of midday.
When does Apple report earnings? After the close today, Monday, November 2.
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Disclaimer: This recap is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice. Markets carry risk, and nothing here guarantees any outcome. Prices are delayed public quotes as of about 9:45 AM PT and subject to change.